Why AIADMK & BJP decided to continue their alliance despite differences

After the alliance’s defeat in 2019 and 2021 elections, a few second-rung leaders of the AIADMK publicly blamed the BJP for the loss and called for snapping of ties. They attributed minorities staying away from the AIADMK due to its alliance with BJP as one of the reasons for the successive electoral defeats.

It is an open secret that a significant section of the AIADMK is not keen on an alliance with the BJP. On the other hand, the BJP’s Tamil Nadu state unit, especially its chief K Annamalai, was also not taking kindly statements against party leaders by the AIADMK, leading to a visible strain in their ties.

Also Read: AIADMK withdraws candidate from Karnataka polls

Yet, last week’s decision by the AIADMK and BJP to continue their alliance for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls after a meeting chaired by Union Home Minister Amit Shah didn’t surprise many. The AIADMK-BJP tied up in 2019 for the first time in over a decade as Jayalalithaa kept the saffron party at an arm’s length distance though she enjoyed good rapport with its leaders.

Leaders in AIADMK and BJP told DH they were forced to iron out their differences as they realised that the only option before them is to fight the 2024 elections together as a split in their ranks would only be music to the ruling DMK’s ears. They pointed out that a split in the alliance might throw up a 2014-like verdict which saw the AIADMK sweeping the elections, leaving the DMK with no seats -- DMK and Congress contested as separate entities after a split, while the BJP-led alliance won two seats.

In fact, according to sources, it was AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami who broke the ice at the meeting by making it clear that his party was firm on continuing the alliance for the 20024 polls, arguing that a strong coalition was necessary to take on the DMK-led alliance, which is numerically strong too.

Annamalai, who was batting for the party going it alone in polls, too was forced to come around and toe the party line and agreed to work with the AIADMK.

The AIADMK, which has just begun to get its act together after a long-drawn internal tussle, realizes that much water has flown down the bridge since 2014 elections which the charismatic J Jayalalithaa converted into a “Lady versus Modi” contest. Party leaders told DH that a prime ministerial face or alliance with a national party was vital for the 2024 elections, especially with the DMK projecting the Congress as the only alternative.

“Amma (Jayalalithaa) had the potential to convert a national election into a local election by projecting her. We can’t do that now. People have begun to vote for parties based on the PM candidate and hence, we need an alliance. Moreover, any split in the Opposition camp would only help DMK. So, why handover the election on a platter to the DMK?” an AIADMK leader asked.

For the BJP, the AIADMK’s vote bank, which is between 30 to 35 per cent, is irresistible and can’t just be ignored as truth hits home that the party is still taking baby steps in Tamil Nadu, and it will take some more time to contest on its own.

“We know AIADMK has issues vis-à-vis BJP. But we can’t make that a major problem and break ties. If we do that, not just us, but the AIADMK will also lose. So, that is why Shah himself stressed that the alliance should stand on mutual respectability,” a BJP leader said.

Senior journalist R Bhagwan Singh told DH that the 39 Lok Sabha seats from Tamil Nadu are very important for the BJP.

“We have seen through quite a number of elections that the AIADMK and BJP fused together as natural allies. That they are both anti-DMK is the first binding factor. With Jayalalithaa no more, the AIADMK needs a national party for the Lok Sabha polls,” Singh added.

Singh also said the BJP stepping up raids against people connected with the DMK’s first family will also come to the advantage of the alliance as both the parties will use them as a political tool in the 2024 elections.