Actor Vijay’s political entry could help BJP in Tamil Nadu, cut DMK votes

Vijay is likely to help the BJP more than it could harm it as the actor is more likely to split the Dravidian parties’ vote bank in Tamil Nadu. That explains the warm welcome message put out by local BJP leaders to Vijay’s announcement.

Finally, it is official. After more than two years of suspense about whether he would enter politics, Tamil film star Vijay announced the formal launch of his new political party, Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam (TVK, which means Tamil Nadu Victory Party) on February 2.

The actor who will turn 50 in June said that the current state of politics was depressing, and needed to be cleansed. Speaking about corruption and differences among people based on caste and religion, Vijay said he will attempt to reform the system.

Though the Vijay Makkal Iyakkam (VMI, or Vijay People’s Movement), a social movement of the actor’s fan clubs, has been active for several years now, it is only over the last couple of years that there has been an active discussion of the star’s likely plunge into politics. In 2022, the VMI contested local body elections as independents and won a few seats. Since then there were rumours that it was only a matter of time before a full-fledged political party emerged. A few months ago, the VMI scouted for booth agents, a move that removed almost all doubt that a political party was around the corner. 

Vijay in his note announcing the new party also said he would bid goodbye to films after completing his pending assignments. As a film star, Vijay is still a massive draw in Tamil Nadu and to a lesser extent in the other southern states too. His last few movies may have been panned by movie critics, but there are claims of them having done well at the box office. He is still a top actor, far from past his prime. In that sense, the decision is a bit of a puzzle.

Politics in Tamil Nadu is a costly affair and while Vijay as a star has plenty of financial clout, the resources needed to run a statewide political outfit are far from those that any individual can sustain over a longer term.

Many Tamil movie stars have tried their luck in politics, and over the last 20 years, those who did mostly came a cropper except for the late Vijayakanth who in the early days saw a measure of success.

The big political question is, whose vote does Vijay take, and how much of it is he likely to get? Though he has said that his party will not be contesting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and will focus attention on contesting the 2026 assembly election, the crystal ball gazing has already begun. Ideologically Vijay speaks the language of the Dravidian parties, particularly the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), supporting the cause of social justice, and voicing out against caste inequities. To that extent, he is likely to cut into the DMK vote.

Also, Vijay being from a minority community can potentially wean away some minority voters from the DMK combine which receives an overwhelming percentage of minority votes in Tamil Nadu. Vijay’s fans who are eligible to vote are mostly the youth in their twenties and thirties, many of whom currently support the firebrand Tamil Nationalist leader Seeman and his Naam Tamilar Katchi. So, the NTK could take a hit too.

There is also a theory that some youth attracted by the rhetoric of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) state President K Annamalai, could switch to Vijay though that remains uncertain. However, the consensus is that the entry of Vijay is likely to help the BJP more than it could harm it as the actor is far more likely to split the Dravidian parties’ vote bank in the state. That explains the rather warm welcome message put out by local BJP leaders when Vijay announced his entry into politics. Not too long ago some BJP leaders in Tamil Nadu used to refer to him as Joseph Vijay with the emphasis on his first name. So, from there to a warm welcome now is quite some distance.

For now, no political party wants to take him on as they are still grappling with the likely impact of his political entry, and are waiting to see the ideological position he could end up taking. However, the reaction of the DMK was lukewarm with most leaders saying that his entry would not have an impact on them.

In the coming months, this cautious approach could change as the gloves come off and Vijay becomes fair game for the existing players in the political space in Tamil Nadu. Vijay has given himself two years to learn the ropes of politics before he enters the electoral arena. What he learns in this period and how he reacts to the barbs aimed at him will decide the political fate of the Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam.

(Sumanth Raman is a Chennai-based television anchor and political analyst.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.