<p>India’s hopes of hosting the fifth Quad Leaders’ Summit this year have gone up in smoke with US President Donald Trump deciding not to travel to New Delhi amid the downward spiral in bilateral ties. He indicated last week—and rather belatedly—that he may visit next year. But given Trump’s fickle and transactional style, even that remains uncertain if India does not deliver the trade deal he wants. </p>.<p>Trump’s snub is a setback not only for the Modi government but also for the wider partnership of the four nations committed to a “free and open Indo-Pacific”, with the explicit aim of containing an expansionist China. With Trump giving the Quad short shrift, the grouping of the United States, India, Australia and Japan – which had gained growing salience in recent years – now risks losing momentum.</p>.<p>For New Delhi, the rapid and dramatic unravelling of its once-close ties with Washington is troubling. Equally concerning has been Trump’s renewed outreach to Chinese President Xi Jinping, culminating in their meeting on the margins of the Apec Summit at Busan in South Korea on October 30.</p>.<p>Trump 2.0 has been markedly tougher on India – from punitive tariffs for importing Russian oil to his repeated claims that he “brokered” the India-Pakistan ceasefire in May. As if this was not enough, Trump’s close embrace of Pakistan and his fulsome praise of its Field Marshal Asim Munir, whom he has described as his “favourite personality”, have left New Delhi nonplussed.</p>.<p>The initial Modi-Trump bonhomie, which saw Modi publicly endorse Trump’s re-election bid with the slogan abki bar Trump sarkar, has long evaporated. The chill is such that Modi chose not to travel to Malaysia for the Asean Summit last month, opting to address it virtually, reportedly to avoid crossing paths with Trump.</p>.<p>The Trump-Xi meeting, their first since 2019, resulted in a temporary truce in the US-China trade war. The two agreed to resume Chinese exports of rare earth minerals and reduce fentanyl-related tariffs on imports from China. The decision to bury the hatchet, even if temporarily, was driven by mutual self-interest and a need to stabilise a strained relationship. It also signalled Trump’s penchant for deal-making, while also indicating he is not averse to closer engagement with Beijing. Indeed, his triumphant use of the term ‘G-2’ (Group of Two) set alarm bells ringing in countries that have thus far seen Washington as a valuable ally in their efforts to contain China’s hegemonic ambitions.</p>.<p>For New Delhi this is particularly disconcerting as Beijing continues its territorial salami-slicing along the 3,488-km Line of Actual Control. While a reset in bilateral ties is now taking place after a prolonged period of confrontation following the Galwan clashes in June 2020, India cannot afford to let its guard down given China’s aggressive moves and deepening collusion with Pakistan along the land borders as well as <br>in the maritime domain. China’s ever-growing influence in India’s immediate neighbourhood also cannot be wished away.</p>.<p><strong>Rebuilding the regional balance </strong></p>.<p>India needs to ensure its partnership with other Quad partners, Japan and Australia, remains sharply focused on the Indo-Pacific. Despite being a close ally of the US, Australia has experienced significant difficulties with Trump over tariffs. It also faced anxiety after the Trump administration threatened a review of the Aukus defence pact.</p>.<p>Japan, too, is integral to the Indo-Pacific. The bilateral ‘Special Strategic and Global Partnership’ serves to “enhance strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific”, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said recently.</p>.<p>Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, in turn, told Modi that Tokyo intends to continue to work together with New Delhi towards realising a free and open Indo-Pacific, including through the Quad framework.</p>.<p>A hardline conservative and the first woman prime minister of Japan, Takaichi was a protege of slain former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was seen as the architect of Japan’s Indo-Pacific strategy and the driving force behind the Quad. Though a China hawk, Takaichi, after her recent meeting with Xi on the margins of the APEC Summit said the two sides would build strategic and mutually beneficial ties. However, it’s early days yet of her prime ministership, and the trajectory of Tokyo-Beijing ties under Taikichi remains to be seen.</p>.<p>That said, the counterbalance to China in the Indo-Pacific cannot rest on the Quad members alone. India will also need to further shore up its relations with ASEAN member nations, many of whom have been at the receiving end of China’s bullying. While India has been making quiet moves to back ASEAN countries, it will need to step up its outreach given the waning interest the US is showing in the Quad. There is no other option for India.</p>.<p><em>(The writer is a senior journalist)</em></p> <p><em>Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.</em></p>
<p>India’s hopes of hosting the fifth Quad Leaders’ Summit this year have gone up in smoke with US President Donald Trump deciding not to travel to New Delhi amid the downward spiral in bilateral ties. He indicated last week—and rather belatedly—that he may visit next year. But given Trump’s fickle and transactional style, even that remains uncertain if India does not deliver the trade deal he wants. </p>.<p>Trump’s snub is a setback not only for the Modi government but also for the wider partnership of the four nations committed to a “free and open Indo-Pacific”, with the explicit aim of containing an expansionist China. With Trump giving the Quad short shrift, the grouping of the United States, India, Australia and Japan – which had gained growing salience in recent years – now risks losing momentum.</p>.<p>For New Delhi, the rapid and dramatic unravelling of its once-close ties with Washington is troubling. Equally concerning has been Trump’s renewed outreach to Chinese President Xi Jinping, culminating in their meeting on the margins of the Apec Summit at Busan in South Korea on October 30.</p>.<p>Trump 2.0 has been markedly tougher on India – from punitive tariffs for importing Russian oil to his repeated claims that he “brokered” the India-Pakistan ceasefire in May. As if this was not enough, Trump’s close embrace of Pakistan and his fulsome praise of its Field Marshal Asim Munir, whom he has described as his “favourite personality”, have left New Delhi nonplussed.</p>.<p>The initial Modi-Trump bonhomie, which saw Modi publicly endorse Trump’s re-election bid with the slogan abki bar Trump sarkar, has long evaporated. The chill is such that Modi chose not to travel to Malaysia for the Asean Summit last month, opting to address it virtually, reportedly to avoid crossing paths with Trump.</p>.<p>The Trump-Xi meeting, their first since 2019, resulted in a temporary truce in the US-China trade war. The two agreed to resume Chinese exports of rare earth minerals and reduce fentanyl-related tariffs on imports from China. The decision to bury the hatchet, even if temporarily, was driven by mutual self-interest and a need to stabilise a strained relationship. It also signalled Trump’s penchant for deal-making, while also indicating he is not averse to closer engagement with Beijing. Indeed, his triumphant use of the term ‘G-2’ (Group of Two) set alarm bells ringing in countries that have thus far seen Washington as a valuable ally in their efforts to contain China’s hegemonic ambitions.</p>.<p>For New Delhi this is particularly disconcerting as Beijing continues its territorial salami-slicing along the 3,488-km Line of Actual Control. While a reset in bilateral ties is now taking place after a prolonged period of confrontation following the Galwan clashes in June 2020, India cannot afford to let its guard down given China’s aggressive moves and deepening collusion with Pakistan along the land borders as well as <br>in the maritime domain. China’s ever-growing influence in India’s immediate neighbourhood also cannot be wished away.</p>.<p><strong>Rebuilding the regional balance </strong></p>.<p>India needs to ensure its partnership with other Quad partners, Japan and Australia, remains sharply focused on the Indo-Pacific. Despite being a close ally of the US, Australia has experienced significant difficulties with Trump over tariffs. It also faced anxiety after the Trump administration threatened a review of the Aukus defence pact.</p>.<p>Japan, too, is integral to the Indo-Pacific. The bilateral ‘Special Strategic and Global Partnership’ serves to “enhance strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific”, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said recently.</p>.<p>Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, in turn, told Modi that Tokyo intends to continue to work together with New Delhi towards realising a free and open Indo-Pacific, including through the Quad framework.</p>.<p>A hardline conservative and the first woman prime minister of Japan, Takaichi was a protege of slain former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who was seen as the architect of Japan’s Indo-Pacific strategy and the driving force behind the Quad. Though a China hawk, Takaichi, after her recent meeting with Xi on the margins of the APEC Summit said the two sides would build strategic and mutually beneficial ties. However, it’s early days yet of her prime ministership, and the trajectory of Tokyo-Beijing ties under Taikichi remains to be seen.</p>.<p>That said, the counterbalance to China in the Indo-Pacific cannot rest on the Quad members alone. India will also need to further shore up its relations with ASEAN member nations, many of whom have been at the receiving end of China’s bullying. While India has been making quiet moves to back ASEAN countries, it will need to step up its outreach given the waning interest the US is showing in the Quad. There is no other option for India.</p>.<p><em>(The writer is a senior journalist)</em></p> <p><em>Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.</em></p>
