Can India weather the neighbourhood storm?

The turbulence around us calls for vision, strategic precision, and political unity on matters of national interest

Can India weather the neighbourhood storm?

India finds itself facing what can only be described as an arc of instability. From the deserts of Afghanistan to the waters of the Maldives, our immediate neighbourhood is a theatre of violence, unrest, and shifting allegiances. The turbulence that surrounds us is not episodic – it is structural, deeply embedded in the political fragility, ethnic fissures, and economic uncertainties of South Asia.

The fall of Kabul to the Taliban and the reassertion of extremist forces in Afghanistan opened a new chapter of uncertainty. Pakistan continues to be a cauldron of internal strife, military dominance, and a faltering economy, even as it nurtures networks inimical to Indian security. Bangladesh, though economically vibrant, faces growing polarisation and religious radicalism, and questions about democratic legitimacy. Nepal remains politically unstable, with China’s shadow looming large over its fragile coalition politics. Sri Lanka has barely emerged from an economic freefall that shook its very state structure, while the Maldives has oscillated between “India First” rhetoric and an assertive “India Out” campaign.

This neighbourhood volatility is not a distant problem – it is India’s first line of challenge. Instability at our borders translates into security vulnerabilities, refugee flows, radicalisation, and new theatres of great-power competition. India’s ability to rise as a responsible global power is inseparably linked to its capacity to manage this volatile ring of fire.

If South Asia presents the immediate arc of instability, the global order compounds it with disorder. The tariff wars unleashed by former US President Donald Trump were more than a bilateral trade skirmish; they were an early signal of deglobalisation. Supply chains have since splintered, technology flows are weaponised, and the multilateral trade system lies weakened. The world is now realigning itself into fragmented blocs, where national security and economics are inseparable. China has emerged as both India’s greatest trading partner and its principal strategic adversary. The US seeks India as a critical partner in the Indo-Pacific, but it is also a difficult negotiator on trade and market access. Russia, once our all-weather ally, is now a diminished yet indispensable partner, especially in defence. The Gulf remains vital to our energy security and diaspora remittances, even as it hedges between Washington, Beijing, and Moscow. Europe, struggling with its own crises, seeks India as a market and geopolitical partner, but hesitates in confronting China directly.

In this fragmented landscape, India faces the classic problem of middle powers: how to preserve strategic autonomy while engaging with competing blocs. India’s current policy framework has served well in maintaining a fine balance, but it is clear that the turbulence of both our neighbourhood and the world order calls for recalibration. Three pillars – foreign policy, national security, and trade – must be revisited in tandem, for they are increasingly inseparable.

In the neighbourhood, this means moving beyond episodic assistance or reactive diplomacy. India must design a coherent regional strategy that leverages the country’s economic size, developmental experience, and cultural linkages. We cannot cede the neighbourhood to Beijing’s cheque-book diplomacy or to the extremist forces that thrive in governance vacuums. Proactive investment in connectivity, cross-border infrastructure, energy cooperation, and people-to-people linkages will strengthen India’s role as the natural anchor of stability. Equally, New Delhi must anchor multilateral mechanisms in South Asia that serve as confidence-building platforms, even if their outcomes are modest. Globally, India must leverage forums such as the Quad, BRICS, and the G20 not as ends in themselves, but as theatres to project a principled voice: one that advocates open trade, respect for sovereignty, and inclusive development.

Strengths and fissures within

On national security, traditional security frameworks – focused on the Line of Control or the Line of Actual Control – are necessary but insufficient. It must encompass cyber resilience, supply chain security, and the safeguarding of critical technologies. Disinformation wars and weaponisation of data will define future conflicts as much as tanks and missiles. India must invest in intelligence reform, integrated defence structures, and a sharper maritime focus in the Indian Ocean. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands must be transformed into the fulcrum of India’s Indo-Pacific strategy. We must also recognise that internal cohesion – managing communal harmony, economic inequalities, and democratic vitality – is the bedrock of external security.

India’s economic rise is its strongest geopolitical card. Yet, protectionist instincts and bureaucratic inertia often blunt our competitiveness. The recent tariff wars have shown that trade is no longer about comparative advantage alone; it is about resilience, redundancy, and national interest. India must craft a trade policy that simultaneously secures access to markets, attracts supply chains relocating out of China, and strengthens domestic manufacturing. Rejoining or creating new trade pacts with like-minded economies will reduce overdependence on any single bloc. At the same time, food, energy, and digital sovereignty must be treated as national security imperatives.

The turbulence of our times demands something that has often eluded us: a bipartisan approach between the government and the opposition and a broad agreement amongst contesting political parties on matters of national interest. Foreign policy and national security cannot be arenas for partisan one-upmanship. When governments change, the world does not reset its calculus. Continuity of purpose, even amidst political contestation, is essential. India’s democracy will be stronger if the political class can converge on the broad contours of foreign, security, and trade policy, even as they contest its details.

The arc of instability around us is real, but India is not without agency. If we approach our neighbourhood with confidence rather than insecurity, if our global engagement is fair, and we treat trade as strategy rather than transaction, we can secure our rightful place as a shaper of the 21st-century 
order. We must demonstrate the sagacity to navigate the storm with vision, resilience, and unity. Is the political class listening?

(The writer is Director, School of Social Sciences, Ramaiah University of Applied Sciences)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.