Can Opposition turn ‘vote-theft’ into a mass movement?

Congress leader Rahul Gandhi has hit upon an enormous electoral fraud that has the potential to change Indian politics of the last 10 years.

By raising the issue of ‘vote-theft’, he has singlehandedly undermined the electoral legitimacy of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and shown the Election Commission of India (ECI) as an unaccountable body open to manipulation. What many secretly suspected is in the open for scrutiny.

His exposé, based on painstaking research by his party, comes at a time when most had given up hope of ever succeeding in effectively taking on the BJP’s formidable election machine. Now, it seems the machine’s secrets are out.

There are grounds to believe that someone may have had a thumb on the scale and short-changed the Indian voter.

Gandhi’s ‘vote-theft’ charge describes systemic and nationwide voter manipulation. It questions both the BJP’s series of recent electoral victories and the conduct of the ECI.

His presentation of evidence from 40 constituencies across several states on duplicate voters, fake/invalid addresses, bulk voters at a single address, invalid photographs, and the misuse of Form 6 (for enrolling new voters) present an extensive picture of fraudulent voter rolls.

Unable to answer Gandhi’s charges, the BJP has accused him of peddling “lies”, attempting to destabilise democracy, and colluding with foreign forces. The ECI also seems exceptionally defensive. Three state electoral officers have asked Gandhi to swear an affidavit under a law that only applies to draft electoral rolls and not to the final voter rolls, which Gandhi had questioned. That data belongs to the ECI. It must authenticate them to convince the nation that rigged voter rolls have not been used.

That the ECI has temporarily disabled search and made the published voter rolls  ‘non-searchable’ after Gandhi’s charges appears to be a highly defensive move.

The ‘vote-theft’ campaign has catalysed Opposition unity around a shared constitutional issue.

Nationalist Congress Party chief Sharad Pawar, who had earlier kept away when the Congress charged the ECI of EVM manipulation in Maharashtra, has now revealed that he was offered 160 seats ‘guaranteed’ before the state elections. This adds credence to the charges of manipulation of voter lists.

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) was wary of the national leadership claim of the Congress earlier and only engaged with the Opposition on issues relating to West Bengal. However, the August 11 protests in front of the ECI’s office in New Delhi saw enthusiastic participation of TMC MPs, with Mahua Moitra and Mitali Bagh fainting during the protests. Akhilesh Yadav of the Samajwadi Party was seen jumping over police barricades, although he had largely been dealing with the Congress only on local alliances in Uttar Pradesh.

The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK) also went beyond its focus on state issues, joining the ‘vote-theft’ protest with gusto after the BJP alleged that there were ‘doubtful voters’ in Chief Minister M K Stalin’s Kolathur constituency.

Gandhi’s data-based evidence has enhanced the credibility of the electoral grievances the Opposition had in common. There is now an unprecedented unity over the erosion of people’s electoral rights, and cadre across parties have been energised, especially in election-going states.

The mainstream media has also been forced to give space to the dramatic protest march to the ECI offices, the detention of Opposition leaders and their hectic dinner parleys.

The use of granular data forced the media to engage with Gandhi’s charges. Reporters who went somewhat sceptically to verify his charges, such as bulk voters at one address, a single voter at many addresses, one fecund voter with 50 sons at one address (in the Modi’s Varanasi constituency), returned more often than not convinced of irregularities.

Since the accusations of rigging voter lists were made across states, the media in a couple of big metros could not determine the national narrative. Multiple voices from several states — ranging from political leaders to civil society organisations — could not be ignored.

Some media platforms loyal to the regime questioned the inconsistencies in Gandhi’s claims. Most TV channels muted live coverage of the Opposition’s protests, but social media went into overdrive. This forced the mainstream media to engage with the charge of elections being stolen.

The result is that now the opacity of voter roll management by the ECI; the need for machine readable electoral data which will allow people to conduct searches within the ECI’s voter database, and the need for the ECI to ensure public trust in conducting elections, have all become part of everyday discourse.

Will Rahul Gandhi and the Opposition be able to sustain the momentum of their ‘vote-theft’ campaign?

The Supreme Court of India has issued an order asking the ECI to publish online the list of 65 lakh voters whose names are proposed for deletion in the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls in Bihar. Can the Opposition build up a wider campaign for judicial review by approaching different high courts in the states where the Congress has evidence of the alleged ‘vote theft’? However, even a single adverse order could give the ruling party a handle to delegitimise the entire campaign.

Perhaps the legal route is best avoided by the Opposition unless it is bolstered by street protests and a mass movement. It is a political issue that it can take it directly to the people whose voting rights have either been denied or their weightage reduced by the addition of fake voters or multiple voters.

Gandhi’s votechori.in site has tried to digitally personalise the issue of vote theft, allowing people to express support; download the Rahul Gandhi presentation of ‘vote-theft’; report if their name is missing from electoral rolls, and demand accountability from the ECI. There is also a missed call registration to support the Opposition's campaign.

On the ground, a ‘Vote Adhikar Yatra’ led by Rahul Gandhi is being organised in Bihar from August 17 to September 1; nationwide candlelight marches at 8 pm on August 14 the eve of the Independence Day; ‘Vote Chor, Gaddi Chhod (Vote Thief, Quit the Throne)’ rallies from August 22 to September 7 and a signature campaign with five crore signatures demanding clear electoral rolls and accountability are being planned.

This is another make-or-break moment for the Opposition to galvanise people. Beginning with the ECI, it is also an opportunity to free constitutional bodies from the ideological grip of the ruling BJP.

(Bharat Bhushan is a New Delhi-based journalist.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.