Depopulation or degrowth?

There is now a perceptible change in the political discourse in India on its population growth. For decades, national policy focused on population control, with the two-child norm serving as the default template for implementation. Since the 1970s, politicians have largely avoided making statements on population policy during elections. However, in 2019, Prime Minister Narendra broke this convention. During his Independence Day speech, he warned that India’s population explosion threatened both current and future development. He praised small households as “role models” and described population control as an “expression of patriotism and love for the nation”.

In the early 1990s, for example, it was observed that the youngsters of marriageable age in Japan preferred not to marry but to cohabit and, when they did marry, not to have children. Today, Indian politicians across party lines are increasingly calling for a shift in the country’s population policy. India is experiencing a steep decline in population growth, with the fertility rate dropping from five in the 1970s to two in 2023, according to the United Nations World Population Prospects 2024. This is now below the replacement level of 2.1.

In March this year, Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu said at a workshop on “Population Dynamics and Development” that India needed to shift from population control to “population management”. While he remains a supporter of the two-child norm, he framed his views in terms of maintaining economic stability. Meanwhile, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin urged young couples to have more children. Stalin’s appeal came in response to Tamil Nadu’s diminishing representation in the Lok Sabha, which is based on population. Despite differing political contexts, both leaders underscored the same concern: that sustaining society and fuelling the economy would require larger, not smaller, populations.

A growing global debate is unfolding around depopulation and its implications. Arguably, the current global population decline can be compared to the bubonic plague of the mid-14th century. But that decline was episodic; the current decline is happening at a time when humanity enjoys the maximum lifespan. “What does a planet with fewer people mean for society? It’s a position the modern world hasn’t been in, so we would be crossing a demographic Rubicon,” writes Javed Franz, an American economist. He sees population decline as a negative impact on the economy: fewer people means less consumption, ultimately shrinking the economy. It also means fewer working people, reduced tax collection, and an ageing society requiring more government expenditure on supportive provisions. In India, similar concerns are being voiced. J Jayarajan, vice chairperson of the Tamil Nadu State Planning Commission, has warned that an ageing population could present an unprecedented challenge, placing significant financial strain on society. The McKinsey Global Institute, in its report Dependency and Depopulation, notes: “Absent action, younger people will inherit lower economic growth and shoulder the cost of more retirees, while the traditional flow of wealth between generations erodes.”

On the other hand, some thinkers suggest that declining population trends might ultimately benefit the planet and its ecosystems. Anthropogenic global warming—the current warming trend driven primarily by human activities such as fossil fuel combustion, deforestation, and nitrogen-heavy agriculture—has significantly altered Earth’s climate. The so-called Green Revolution, heavily reliant on synthetic fertilisers, has also contributed to global warming through the emission of nitrous oxide from urea decomposition.

From this perspective, the rise in human population – unmatched by any other species in scale, speed, or predatory behaviour – has not been planet-friendly. Stephanie Feldstein, director of population and sustainability at the Centre for Biological Diversity, United States, writes in Scientific American: “While many assume population decline would inevitably harm the economy, researchers found that lower fertility rates would not only result in lower emissions by 2055 but also a per capita income increase of 10%.” She further argues, “Population decline is only a threat to an economy based on growth. Shifting to a model based on degrowth and equity alongside lower fertility rates will help fight climate change and increase wealth and well-being.”

The evolving discourse in India, the U-turn in India’s population narrative, brings into focus this dilemma.

(The writer is a former Professor, The Royal Society, Belgium)