Did India miss its moment in the West Asia reset?

The West Asia region is in great churn. Two events, in quick succession and seemingly related – the Israeli attack on Qatari capital Doha, and the Saudi Arabia-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) – have added to the quagmire. In more than 70 years of conflicts, Israel had never directly attacked a Gulf monarchy. This act of aggression has forced the Gulf nations to rethink their strategies vis-à-vis Israel.

Within days of the attack, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan signed the SMDA. The agreement stipulates that any external attack on either country will be considered an attack on both. Boastful Pakistani generals and commentators have been talking about Pakistan extending the nuclear umbrella to Saudi Arabia. The move is being interpreted as a deterrence aimed at Israel.

Some commentators have linked the agreement to the threat posed by Shia Iran to Sunni Saudi Arabia, though the two rivals have been working on rapprochement through Chinese mediation. A significant aspect of the
SMDA, from India’s perspective, is
the speed and manner in which Pakistan has risen from diplomatic isolation and irrelevance. The Sharif-Munir
regime has acquired a diplomatic heft in Washington that didn’t look inevitable until Operation Sindoor. In
Riyadh and the other Gulf capitals, Pakistan’s stock has gone a couple of notches up.

Delhi is smarting from President Donald Trump’s re-hyphenation of India with Pakistan. Islamabad is no longer “isolated” as Indian policymakers have been tirelessly telling the domestic audience. Ebullient Pakistani generals and civil society are untiringly pushing a narrative that under Munir, the country’s status as a South Asian power has been recognised in the Western and Gulf capitals.

Neither development – the attack on Qatar that hosts the USAF Central Command headquarters at the Al Udeid airbase and the SMDA – could have happened without the US’s tacit approval.

That leads us to ask a question whether Trump is recruiting Munir for a wider role in West and South Asia. Is he roping in the Pakistani army as a junior partner in stabilising West Asia as the US contemplates a gradually decreasing responsibility in ensuring security to Petro-dollar monarchs, a task in which Washington has failed? Does Trump have a plan for Munir in Gaza and Afghanistan?

The fact is that Pakistan can play a limited role in standing as a security guarantor to the region. Its army can guard Saudi’s holy cities, mosques, and the king’s palaces, which it has already been doing but little beyond. On the other hand, India could have pitched itself as a net security guarantor to the region, besides guarding vital sea lanes to ensure an uninterrupted energy supply in collaboration with the US. For that, India needed to pursue a holistic and imaginative approach to the region.

India is a major regional power that has a presence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) from the Arabian Peninsula to the mouth of the Malacca Strait. It was in a sweet spot with its enhanced relations with key Gulf monarchies in recent years, and existing and developing strategic partnerships with the Gulf nations, as well as the US, before Trump upended the entire calculus.

Regional goals and the Gaza drift

The idea that India could play a vital role in becoming a security guarantor to the region first came up when the Manmohan Singh government was in power. The idea was tossed about in some of the Gulf capitals following the US pivot to the Indo-Pacific and the Obama administration’s passive role in the Syrian conflict. Gulf monarchs felt shaky about the future security void a US pullout could create.

Though China has been dramatically increasing its trade and economic footprint in the region, it has not been keen on pushing the military and security envelope. As rivals, the US and China are not expected to play complementary roles in West Asia’s security arrangement.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s years saw India taking a different approach to the region, disregarding what the Gulf states possibly expected. Modi worked hard on strengthening the bilateral ties with the Gulf nations, the main focus being on economy, trade, immigration, and people-to-people relations. His approach has led to improved relations with individual Gulf rulers. But there has been no effort to strengthen ties with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) nations as a whole. The roadmap has lacked a region-specific vision.

India’s stance on Israel’s war against Gaza has further complicated matters for New Delhi. It is now viewed as standing with Zionist Israel against the Islamic nations. The Arab Street, which saw India as a friend, expressed amazement at its pluralism, diversity, and religious co-existence, is uncomfortable with the growing intolerance in the country.

One could argue that building bilateral relations, as against a regional approach, was a move to de-risk getting embroiled in messy intra-capital affairs. But in hindsight, it appears to be a missed opportunity, given the region’s geography, India’s large diaspora, and the extent of its energy security. That Trump is according a larger role to Pakistan as India is watching from the sidelines shows that India’s policies for the Gulf region have not delivered.

(The author is a journalist who has worked in the Gulf countries)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.

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