In Iran, an airstrike on global order

The United States has joined Israel’s war against Iran with strikes on three nuclear facilities in the Islamic republic, pinning West Asia to the centre of regional disorder with a global fallout. B-2 stealth bombers dropped 14 GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs) in Fordow and Natanz; Tomahawk missiles from a US submarine hit the site in Isfahan. Dan Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said the mission – Operation Midnight Hammer – left all three sites with “extremely severe damage”. Israel and the US see the military action as preemptive, backed by reports on Iran’s stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium. But the strikes have been ordered only three months after the US Director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, said Iran was not pursuing a weapons programme.

With President Trump backing Prime Minister Netanyahu in this perilous offensive, the region is staring at prolonged unrest in a grim replay of history. This is a throwback to the US’ past interventions – from militarising false claims on Iraq’s WMDs to engaging with rebel militias for stoking conflicts – cloaked under claims to reinstate peace and democracy in strife-torn countries. Iran is working with limited options but is still on counterattack mode, now targeting US bases. Sustained Israeli attacks have significantly weakened Iran’s regional proxies such as Hezbollah. By going ahead with the proposed closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disrupting the global supply of oil and liquefied gas, Iran could severely hamper its own economic interests.

Trump has claimed “total obliteration” of Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities and talked about more airstrikes. This aggression, based on patchy evidence of a country’s nuclear-weapon ambitions, stands in conflict with international law. Article 51 of the UN Charter entails the right of individual or collective self defence in the event of an armed attack. However, the strikes on Iran have been ordered to prevent a purported “future attack”. It must be noted that Rafael Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), recently said that while the levels of uranium enrichment in Iran were a concern, there was no evidence of a structured plan to develop a nuclear device. The war in West Asia has takeaways for the world: it may diminish countries’ trust in the rules-based order and could set an arms race in motion. The IAEA has made a call against military escalation which it said could derail efforts towards a diplomatic solution. But if assertions by Trump and Netanyahu are any indication, restraint has left the rhetoric.