In Tamil Nadu, an alliance of unequals

Despite its regional roots, a weakened AIADMK will have to let the BJP have a say beyond its strength.

The electoral arrangement entered into by the AIADMK and the BJP in Tamil Nadu is an alliance of convenience aimed at strong returns from the 2026 Assembly elections. Alliances are no longer based on common ideas or similar ideologies among political parties anywhere in the country. They depend on the existence of a party or alliance to be commonly opposed. Both the AIADMK and the BJP have a common interest in opposing the DMK-led alliance though there are very few issues on which they agree. The AIADMK had earlier this month voted against the Waqf (Amendment) Bill in parliament, and the two parties disagree on issues such as language policy, federal relations, delimitation, and NEET. But an electoral alliance has been sewn up.

Both parties have realised the need for an alliance in the state’s present political situation. The BJP considers it so important that the party’s state president K Annamalai, who was against the alliance, has stepped down and a leader who was once in the AIADMK and therefore knows that party well has been appointed president. AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K Palaniswami had taken the party out of an earlier alliance with the BJP in 2023, but the party has not been able to mount a challenge to the DMK alliance. While the ruling DMK alliance swept the 2024 Lok Sabha elections and the BJP increased its vote share, the AIADMK suffered the ignominy of a total rout, losing its deposit in many seats. However, the vote share data showed that an alliance between the two parties could have won about a dozen seats if there had been a mutual vote transfer. This is the electoral logic for the present arrangement.

The full shape of the alliance is not known yet. Union Home Minister Amit Shah who announced the alliance in Chennai said Edappadi Palaniswami would lead it. Tamil Nadu has many small parties with caste- and region-based support. Most of these parties may have to join one alliance or the other as they won’t have a chance when two major alliances are in the fray. The BJP, which has four seats in the assembly, is following its time-tested strategy of allying with a regional party in a state where it has no major presence. While the AIADMK will be considered the major partner, the BJP is bound to have a say beyond its strength. The party has gained more from such alliances than its regional partners in the short term and the long term.