<p>Developments in the week ahead are critical to determine the course of the so-called peace deal for Gaza. Few details are known of US President Donald Trump’s peace proposal, to which Israel and Hamas have agreed, except that it is to be signed in Egypt on Monday. </p><p>Trump’s deals have had a way of going awry. Yet, if his proposal for Gaza holds out hope, it is because of the break in hostilities. The ceasefire, which is the first step, seems to be holding despite provocations. </p><p>This in itself is welcome, coming as it does after one of the deadliest wars waged against unarmed people, especially children, women and the elderly in Gaza. If the ceasefire, which has proved elusive in the last two years, holds while both sides release hostages to create conditions for pursuing peace, that in itself would be a major accomplishment. </p>.<p>Such a pause in the war would be a high point in Trump’s second term, and for the US, which is brokering peace. The country is involved in this conflict with its backing for Israel. For that very reason, any claim of durable peace is premature, if not suspect; agreements have been signed before, only to be discarded before they are accepted by all stakeholders. The second reason for hope, despite Israel’s genocidal war crimes to which much of the world’s capitals have been silent spectators, is that Hamas has been considerably weakened. However, to see this as imminent surrender could be a misreading as Hamas is apparently still strong enough for the US and Israel to insist on its disarmament. A Hamas representative has said disarmament is “out of the question”. </p>.<p>Disarmament of Hamas, one of many hurdles to be overcome, is critical after the two sides release the hostages. Will countries that prevailed on Hamas to accept the peace plan succeed in getting Hamas to go further? The withdrawal of Israeli troops hinges on Hamas accepting disarmament, a key condition in the 20-point peace plan. </p><p>Without disarmament being negotiated to the satisfaction of Hamas, the processes towards stability may well get stalled. Worse, they may be seized by Israel to resume its killings in Gaza. The plan’s potential in terms of reconstruction depends on the acceptability of the transition mechanisms and governance model. These cannot be put in place by undermining the Palestinian Authority and vesting oversight in a partisan West-led group. Unless details of the peace plan are worked out to the satisfaction of the Palestinians, they are unlikely to be won over.</p>
<p>Developments in the week ahead are critical to determine the course of the so-called peace deal for Gaza. Few details are known of US President Donald Trump’s peace proposal, to which Israel and Hamas have agreed, except that it is to be signed in Egypt on Monday. </p><p>Trump’s deals have had a way of going awry. Yet, if his proposal for Gaza holds out hope, it is because of the break in hostilities. The ceasefire, which is the first step, seems to be holding despite provocations. </p><p>This in itself is welcome, coming as it does after one of the deadliest wars waged against unarmed people, especially children, women and the elderly in Gaza. If the ceasefire, which has proved elusive in the last two years, holds while both sides release hostages to create conditions for pursuing peace, that in itself would be a major accomplishment. </p>.<p>Such a pause in the war would be a high point in Trump’s second term, and for the US, which is brokering peace. The country is involved in this conflict with its backing for Israel. For that very reason, any claim of durable peace is premature, if not suspect; agreements have been signed before, only to be discarded before they are accepted by all stakeholders. The second reason for hope, despite Israel’s genocidal war crimes to which much of the world’s capitals have been silent spectators, is that Hamas has been considerably weakened. However, to see this as imminent surrender could be a misreading as Hamas is apparently still strong enough for the US and Israel to insist on its disarmament. A Hamas representative has said disarmament is “out of the question”. </p>.<p>Disarmament of Hamas, one of many hurdles to be overcome, is critical after the two sides release the hostages. Will countries that prevailed on Hamas to accept the peace plan succeed in getting Hamas to go further? The withdrawal of Israeli troops hinges on Hamas accepting disarmament, a key condition in the 20-point peace plan. </p><p>Without disarmament being negotiated to the satisfaction of Hamas, the processes towards stability may well get stalled. Worse, they may be seized by Israel to resume its killings in Gaza. The plan’s potential in terms of reconstruction depends on the acceptability of the transition mechanisms and governance model. These cannot be put in place by undermining the Palestinian Authority and vesting oversight in a partisan West-led group. Unless details of the peace plan are worked out to the satisfaction of the Palestinians, they are unlikely to be won over.</p>
