<p>The India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s projection of above-normal rainfall during this year’s monsoon will bring cheer to the country when the economy is facing uncertainty due to global factors. Private weather forecaster Skymet has also predicted normal rainfall. Predictions by meteorological agencies outside the country are on the same lines. While normal rainfall denotes rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the long-period average of 868.6 mm, the IMD forecast is for 105 per cent, while Skymet puts it at 103 per cent. If the IMD projections turn out to be correct, this would be the second straight year of above-normal rainfall. Last year’s prediction of above-normal rains was accurate; this was attributed to the use of better technology and the IMD’s modelling efficiency.</p>.Sunday rains uproot trees, cause traffic snarls in Bengaluru.<p>It is the absence of <em>El Nino</em> conditions – associated with the warming of sea surface waters in the Pacific Ocean – that has contributed to the possibility of a normal monsoon. Neutral conditions are likely to prevail in the Pacific during the season. The IMD has also taken into consideration sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and the Eurasian snow cover which impact the monsoon rainfall. Most parts of the country except Ladakh, the North-East, and Tamil Nadu are likely to experience normal to above-normal rainfall. South interior and north interior Karnataka are expected to receive above-average rainfall and Malnad and the coastal regions may receive normal rainfall. According to Skymet, the rainfall will be low earlier in the season but will pick up later.</p>.<p>Temporal and spatial distribution of the rainfall carries more significance than the average or total rainfall – the rains should be available to the farmers when they need them. Early monsoon months are critical to the sowing of crops such as paddy, coarse cereals, pulses, and soybean. The IMD usually gives another prediction with more details about the expected precipitation, duration, and distribution close to the onset of the monsoon. The agency has to develop the expertise to make localised predictions for the districts--predictions covering narrower regions are more useful to farmers. A good monsoon will result in increased agricultural production and greater rural demand which can give a boost to the economy. Governments should, however, be ready to face adverse, unforeseen conditions. While the overall rainfall was true to the IMD’s predictions last year, over half of the country received either excessive or deficient rainfall because of climate change or other factors. Such a situation could result in droughts, floods, landslides, or other extreme events. The authorities must have in place a comprehensive contingency plan.</p>
<p>The India Meteorological Department (IMD)’s projection of above-normal rainfall during this year’s monsoon will bring cheer to the country when the economy is facing uncertainty due to global factors. Private weather forecaster Skymet has also predicted normal rainfall. Predictions by meteorological agencies outside the country are on the same lines. While normal rainfall denotes rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the long-period average of 868.6 mm, the IMD forecast is for 105 per cent, while Skymet puts it at 103 per cent. If the IMD projections turn out to be correct, this would be the second straight year of above-normal rainfall. Last year’s prediction of above-normal rains was accurate; this was attributed to the use of better technology and the IMD’s modelling efficiency.</p>.Sunday rains uproot trees, cause traffic snarls in Bengaluru.<p>It is the absence of <em>El Nino</em> conditions – associated with the warming of sea surface waters in the Pacific Ocean – that has contributed to the possibility of a normal monsoon. Neutral conditions are likely to prevail in the Pacific during the season. The IMD has also taken into consideration sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and the Eurasian snow cover which impact the monsoon rainfall. Most parts of the country except Ladakh, the North-East, and Tamil Nadu are likely to experience normal to above-normal rainfall. South interior and north interior Karnataka are expected to receive above-average rainfall and Malnad and the coastal regions may receive normal rainfall. According to Skymet, the rainfall will be low earlier in the season but will pick up later.</p>.<p>Temporal and spatial distribution of the rainfall carries more significance than the average or total rainfall – the rains should be available to the farmers when they need them. Early monsoon months are critical to the sowing of crops such as paddy, coarse cereals, pulses, and soybean. The IMD usually gives another prediction with more details about the expected precipitation, duration, and distribution close to the onset of the monsoon. The agency has to develop the expertise to make localised predictions for the districts--predictions covering narrower regions are more useful to farmers. A good monsoon will result in increased agricultural production and greater rural demand which can give a boost to the economy. Governments should, however, be ready to face adverse, unforeseen conditions. While the overall rainfall was true to the IMD’s predictions last year, over half of the country received either excessive or deficient rainfall because of climate change or other factors. Such a situation could result in droughts, floods, landslides, or other extreme events. The authorities must have in place a comprehensive contingency plan.</p>
