Fear, welfare, and weak opposition: Why BJP expects Muslim votes in Assam

‘Sir, I am a party worker,’ middle-aged Nazimuddin told Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, his hands folded and demeanour submissive. It was May 14, at Kochutoli village in the outskirts of the state capital, Guwahati. The CM was visiting to inspect a 155-acre plot of “government land”, from which several Bengali-speaking Muslims, including Nazimuddin, were evicted in September last year. Two residents were killed, and several others, including policemen, were injured when the evicted residents allegedly attacked a police team.

“Even then, don’t move around here, or the police will catch you,” Sarma was heard saying in a video, telling at least three residents who came to speak to him. “Where will we go with our families? We were born here. My father bought this plot,” one of them asked. “I will check your birth certificate. The DC will look into what can be done,” Sarma replied before walking away.

The BJP-led government plans to set up a new battalion headquarters of the state police on the plot. Since assuming office in May 2021, the Sarma government has carried out several eviction drives across Assam, clearing land from Bengali-speaking Muslims — who are often labelled by the ruling BJP and others as “Bangladeshi migrants” and a “threat” to the identity of the indigenous Assamese.

Though the fate of BJP member Nazimuddin’s plea remains unknown, grassroots Muslim leaders in Assam have started joining the BJP, hoping to avoid similar eviction drives. The number of Muslim members in the BJP has nearly doubled in the past two years, rising from less than 40,000 to over 60,000. The recent results of the panchayat and zila parishad polls, held on May 2 and 7, reflect this trend of growing Muslim support for the saffron party in Assam. BJP’s Muslim candidates won in four zila parishads and 32 panchayats. The party’s seat share in zila parishad rose from 50.48% in 2018 to 68.51% in 2025 and from 46.66% to 57.70% in anchalik panchayats.

“The results prove that Muslims are gradually accepting the BJP and voting for us. BJP candidates won in two panchayats in Nalbari and Barpeta districts, where 100% of voters are Muslims,” Sarma told reporters on May 12, two days before his visit to Kochutoli.

Many believe Muslims are voting for BJP out of fear —of eviction drives and being branded “Bangladeshis”. But Sarma claims their support is due to the welfare schemes his government has implemented over the past four years. “We did not exclude Muslim women from our cash transfer scheme Arunodoi, through which we provide Rs 1,250 every month to financially weak women. Muslim women are also supporting us because we launched a drive against child marriage and saved underage girls. They are happy because we ended triple talaq,” Sarma said. “Muslims are gradually seeing through the false narrative spread by Congress that Narendra Modi is against them. They said if Modi came to power, Muslims would not be allowed to run their mosques. Did any such thing happen since Modi ji came to power in 2014?” he asked.

The BJP hopes that more Muslims will vote for the party in the Assembly elections scheduled for early next year. The party believes not just Bengali-speaking Muslims, but also Assamese Muslims—who were recognised as indigenous communities by the Sarma government in September last year—will shift further towards the BJP.

The Congress, however, claims Muslims voted for the BJP in the panchayat polls due to intimidation by grassroots BJP workers. “Many BJP workers threatened that if Muslims did not vote for BJP, the Himanta government would tag them as illegal migrants from Bangladesh and put them in detention camps. They also threatened to cut funds to panchayats where Muslims are the majority,” a Congress leader alleged.

Options for Muslims

Muslims in Assam, who comprise about 35% of the state’s population and are decisive in 25 to 30 Assembly seats (out of 126), have traditionally backed the Congress or the Badruddin Ajmal-led All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF).

Formed in 2005, the AIUDF promised to protect Muslims from the citizenship crisis that had gripped them after the Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) Act, 1983, was struck down by the Supreme Court. The IMDT, which had served as a shield to some extent, was scrapped following a petition by Sarbananda Sonowal — then a student leader and now a Union Minister in the Modi Cabinet.

But AIUDF’s support base among Muslims declined in the 2021 Assembly polls and the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. Ajmal himself lost to Congress’s Rakibul Hussain in Dhubri, a Muslim-majority constituency he had represented four times in a row. AIUDF’s Assembly tally also went down to 15. Party insiders attribute this to AIUDF’s failure to protect Bengali-speaking Muslims during the National Register of Citizens (NRC) update process. The draft NRC excluded 19.06 lakh applicants—nearly half of them Bengali Muslims.

With the Congress facing a leadership crisis and the exodus of many prominent leaders since Sarma’s exit in 2015, Muslim voters are left with fewer options.

“They voted for BJP and its allies in panchayat polls out of fear. In the Assembly elections, the trend will reverse. They will vote for Congress to unseat the BJP and put an end to the harassment in the name of detecting illegal migrants and conducting eviction drives,” said Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi, who is likely to be projected as the Opposition’s CM face.