Footnotes to the Delhi shake-up

The Delhi election results not only signal a shift in power at the national capital but indicate a broader shuffle in India’s political landscape where regional parties are losing ground to the BJP. With control over Haryana, Delhi, and Uttar Pradesh, the BJP now dominates a region deeply linked by social, economic, and political ties. For the AAP, this is a critical moment. After ruling Delhi for over a decade under Arvind Kejriwal’s undisputed and centralised leadership, the party is facing its toughest challenge. Kejriwal, who built the AAP from scratch, now has to rethink his strategy, especially in Punjab, before it slips into electoral irrelevance.

The numbers tell the story. Kejriwal, along with his closest aide Manish Sisodia, lost. In 2020, the AAP commanded over 50% of the vote while the BJP struggled to hit 40%. Today, that gap has almost disappeared with the BJP at 45% and the AAP at 43% but yet, the seat-wise win-loss gap is stark. So what changed, really? For years, the AAP’s governance, welfare schemes, and a soft Hindutva approach worked. But with shifting voter priorities, has the party’s model lost steam, or is this just a stumble? There could be answers in the role played by women and factors such as caste, class, and religion.

The election was not merely about numbers or party strategies; its outcome was also shaped by a quiet, yet decisive force: women voters. This time, they turned out at 60.92%, surpassing the 60.21% male turnout. In 41 of Delhi’s 70 constituencies, women outvoted men, signalling a shift in electoral dynamics. According to a Lokniti-CSDS survey, women’s safety was a major concern, with 87% of voters considering it important and 4% listing it as their primary issue.

Other high-priority concerns included cleanliness (92%) and water-related problems (86%), showing that civic and domestic issues dominated their voting choices. Among the BJP voters, 46% ranked cleanliness as a key issue, reflecting a strong focus on household and community welfare.

But turnout alone did not dictate outcomes. In Okhla, where the female turnout was 5.73 percentage points higher, the AAP won, suggesting that its welfare focus still resonates with women. A similar trend in Burari, with a 1.78-point lead for women, also helped the AAP. However, this wasn’t exclusive to the AAP – constituencies such as Adarsh Nagar and Timarpur where women outvoted men saw BJP victories. This suggests that women voters acted independently rather than as a monolithic bloc, weighing governance, safety, and broader ideological narratives beyond welfare policies.

Beyond these key constituencies, areas like New Delhi, Delhi Cantonment, and Ballimaran also saw a strong female turnout. Even in Badli, where the rise was just 0.40 percentage points, the message was clear: women were not just voting; they were shaping the results.

Key intersections: Caste, class, religion

Beyond the gender dynamics, the election revealed sharp shifts along caste, class, and religious lines, deepening polarisation. The AAP retained support among the Dalit and poorer voters but with shrinking margins, while the BJP strengthened its hold on the middle-class and upper-caste voters.

However, in Muslim-majority areas, AIMIM emerged as a challenger, signalling a realignment. The AAP is reported to have performed best in the poorer constituencies. The party’s welfare policies continued to attract urban poor voters while the aspirational middle-class voters appeared to have turned away. In turn, the BJP has consolidated its base in the wealthier constituencies, driven by the dissatisfaction with the AAP’s governance and allegations of corruption against the party.

Class-based voting patterns were also evident. The working-class and lower-middle-class voters leaned towards the AAP, prioritising unemployment (55%) and price rise (52%), two key campaign issues. In contrast, the voters of the BJP were seen as concerned about corruption (76%) and development (59%). The Congress failed to generate a strong class-based appeal, as its voter concerns remained fragmented – 42% prioritised cleanliness, while 49% were worried about the price rise, preventing a cohesive electoral strategy.

Caste continued to be a decisive poll factor. OBC and Dalit voters largely backed the AAP due to its focus on education (86%) and healthcare (85%), both crucial for lower-caste communities.

However, upper-caste Hindus leaned towards the BJP, aligning with its governance and positions on religion (61%). The Congress, traditionally reliant on Dalit and Muslim voters, saw its influence decline further due to a lack of targeted issue-based engagement. While the AAP retained most Dalit-dominated seats, its margins shrank significantly. Of Delhi’s 12 SC-reserved constituencies, the AAP lost Mangolpuri to the BJP by 6,255 votes and saw its lead erode elsewhere. In Ambedkar Nagar, its margin fell from 43.58% (2015) to 28.05% (2020) to just 4.37% (2025), while Sultanpur Majra saw a similar drop – from 55.79% (2015) to 42.86% (2020) to 15.21% (2025).

Religion also played a role, with 61% of the voters prioritising religious protection. AAP’s vote share fell in Muslim-dominated constituencies. The AIMIM made its presence felt in Okhla and Mustafabad.

The 2025 election in Delhi highlights a fractured electorate – the AAP’s dominance is fading, the BJP’s gains remain uneven, and the new challengers are reshaping Delhi’s political landscape. The battle ahead will not just be about governance but about which party can build a stable voter base amid widening social and economic divides.

(Deepanshu is professor, dean and director, Centre for New Economics Studies, O P Jindal Global University; Aditi and Ankur are research analysts at the centre)