Germany’s new turn on migrants

Germany could be a viable option for skilled Indian workers and professionals proficient in the German language after the incoming conservative-social democrat coalition decided against allowing irregular migrants and to turn down asylum seekers in its new policy document, to be presented soon before the newly elected lawmakers.

The 144-page Coalition Agreement finalised between the centrist CDU, its Bavarian sister party Christian Socialist Union and the centre-Left Social Democratic Party that helmed the outgoing government, has ironed out most thorny issues including the migration question. The Coalition Agreement seeks a course correction, especially in altering the country’s migration policy that had hitherto welcomed asylum seekers and irregular migrants.

In the first press conference after sealing the agreement, that would act as the common minimum programme of the incoming government, Friedrich Merz said his government would “take a new course” in the migration policy. The conservative push has ended the three-year “turbo” naturalisation for skilled and educated migrants who meet the requisite German language skills and integration requirements introduced in June last year. But immigrants can still avail of the regular five-year naturalisation process.

While continuing the controls at its land border checkpoints, reinstated in September last year to curb rising crimes committed by irregular migrants, the Chancellor-in-waiting said his government would reject asylum applications and “launch a repatriation offensive” to deport migrants who don’t meet the residence requirements and those with criminal records.

Merz’s CDU rival and then Chancellor Angela Merkel had in 2015 welcomed nearly a million refugees, mainly from war-torn Syria. Many of them have since been granted citizenship. The controversial move to welcome such a large number of migrants had since boosted the far-right Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) that finished second only to Merz’s CDU in the recent Parliament elections. Experts agree that Merkel’s move – although lauded from the humanitarian angle – had helped the Eurosceptic and anti-immigration AfD which swept the former East German constituencies.

The coalition agreement seeks to end voluntary admission programmes carried out to welcome incoming refugees and asylum seekers and suspend family reunification while increasing the number of countries of safe origin.

The incoming government would, however, continue to welcome skilled and educated immigrants who meet the mandatory qualifications needed to fill the ever-widening gap of skills shortage in the country. In their earnest attempt to reboot and recharge to bring back the old glory of a heavily industrialised Germany, Merz and his team have a tough task in hand since the country needs 288,000 skilled workers each year until 2040.

A study commissioned by Bertelsmann Foundation last year found that the German workforce could shrink by 10 per cent by 2040 if not augmented by skilled migrant workers. From the current 46.4 million, the German workforce could slide to 41.9 million in 2040 and 35.1 million in 2060, if not supplemented by 288,000 skilled workers each year.

Faced with the challenge of arresting the influx of illegal migrants, the incoming government has its task cut out to provide adequate replacements of the fast-depleting workforce in the ageing country. This is where the opportunity lies for labour-exporting countries such as India, especially in light of the anti-immigration policies of US President Donald Trump.

Openings for skilled Indians

Germany had promised to increase the number of visas for skilled Indian workers and professionals from 20,000 to 90,000 during the visit of the outgoing Chancellor Olaf Sholz to New Delhi in October 2024. German labour minister Hubertus Heil had then described the migration of Indian skilled workers as “a success story” while rolling out the red carpet.

Some 137,000 skilled Indians were employed in Germany as in February 2024, nearly 23,000 more than a year prior. The number of Indians
in skilled jobs was just 23,000 in 2015.

But one major impediment for foreign skilled workers seeking to move to the country is the language barrier. Knowledge of German is a prerequisite in several skilled categories and for professionals such as doctors and nurses.

While India has a large talent pool of doctors and paramedical staff, Germany reported a shortage of over 47,000 healthcare professionals in 2023-24. Merz is expected to address the critical shortage of health workers in view of the ageing population. Experts have already pointed out that the advanced level of German skills needed for healthcare professionals has been an impediment in attracting overseas talents. But an immediate relaxation is not on the cards.

(The writer is a senior journalist based in Berlin)