H-1B warrants tact from Trump, Musk

They need to balance interests of their core MAGA base and demands for high-skilled immigration

The H-1B visa programme has long been a cornerstone of the US tech industry, enabling companies to access global talent and fuel innovation and growth. Established in 1990, it is a key pathway for US companies to hire skilled non-immigrant aliens as workers in specialty occupations, particularly in fields like technology, engineering, and healthcare. The programme has been instrumental in fuelling the growth of industries that rely on highly specialised talent, offering companies the ability to tap into a global workforce.

However, over the years, the programme has become a point of contention in the broader immigration debate. Critics argue that it is often exploited to bring in cheaper labour. Amid rising concerns about job loss for local Americans, Trump’s re-election as the 47th President of the United States following a robust anti-immigration campaign, has ruffled the H-1B programme, creating uncertainties about its future. But the dynamics at play are more complex than they first appear. Elon Musk, a close ally of Trump and the head of the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), exemplifies the dilemma that now confronts the Republican leadership. Although elected on an 'America First' and anti-immigration agenda, the Republicans are also increasingly aware of the crucial role high-skilled immigration plays in supporting and driving the US economy.

Trump's unexpected and decisive victory can be attributed to a highly effective electoral campaign and strategic public outreach. Central to his campaign were calls for curbing immigration and prioritising American citizens' interests, that resonated strongly with his Make America Great Again (MAGA) base. He denounced the H-1B visa programme, calling it “bad for Americans.” He has also threatened large-scale deportations of illegal immigrants, positioning himself as a staunch advocate for stricter immigration enforcement.

Having secured his victory, Trump supporters now expect him to walk the talk, particularly on immigration. However, to their dismay, there has been a shift in Trump’s stance on the H-1B visa programme. He has stated he has always been a “believer” of the visas and emphasised the need for the US to attract “smart people”, though the president-elect has since clarified that he has not changed his original position. This shift can be attributed to three key factors. First, Trump's close ally, Elon Musk, has publicly defended the programme. As a leading figure in tech, Musk acknowledges how American technological companies have benefited from the high-skilled workers brought in through the programme.

Second, the growing influence of Indian Americans within the new Trump administration may also be a factor. High-profile appointees such as Kash Patel (Director of the FBI), Vivek Ramaswamy (co-head of DOGE), Sriram Krishnan (Senior White House Policy Advisor on AI), and others, signal the increasing prominence of Indian American figures in shaping policy. Given that Indians are the largest beneficiaries of the H-1B programme, it is likely that the Indian American lobbying community is influencing the administration's stance towards work visas.

Finally, the strong rapport between Trump and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi may also play a role. Trump’s favourable relationship with Modi and intent to bolster positive ties with Indian leadership could further contribute to a more supportive position on the visa programme. Additionally, Musk’s business interests in India, where he is likely seeking to expand his ventures, may also influence his advocacy for policies that benefit Indian American communities and facilitate smoother relations with the Indian government.

Will Trump walk the talk?

Thus, Trump and Musk now find themselves in a delicate position. On one hand, they must navigate the pressure to uphold their electoral promises of curbing immigration, particularly to satisfy their MAGA base. On the other hand, both recognise the critical role the H-1B visa programme plays in fuelling the US economic and business interests.

Both Trump and Musk have begun to adjust their positions on the visa issue, despite facing backlash from supporters both within and outside the Republican Party. During his first presidency, Trump took a hardline approach to curbing H-1B visas, leading to a significant rise in visa rejections and the implementation of more complicated procedures that discouraged companies from hiring foreign workers. However recently, there is a noticeable shift towards a more lenient stance. But even as Trump has now expressed support for the visas, pressure from his support base may compel him to revert to his previous tough stance. In such a case, we can expect reforms to streamline the visa process, but it is unlikely that he will pursue drastic measures to significantly reduce high-skilled immigration.

Instead, Trump is more likely to focus on illegal immigration. Both Trump and Musk will aim to secure their core voter base, particularly those who advocate for stricter immigration controls, while also acknowledging the importance of high-skilled immigration to American businesses and economic interests.

(The writer is a PhD student at the University of Delaware)