In Maharashtra poll rout, some learnings for also-rans

The big lens

Defying predictions of a close contest, the BJP-led Mahayuti has romped home in the Maharashtra Assembly election, leaving the Congress and its allies in the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in search of answers. The Mahayuti’s landslide win has also raised questions on the relevance of smaller parties in the state.

The exit poll numbers were probably drawn from the INDI Alliance’s impressive showing in the Lok Sabha election earlier this year – 30 seats and 43.71 per cent votes, corresponding to winning about 150 seats in the State Assembly – but in a striking reversal, the alliance’s tally was reduced to 49 seats. The Mahayuti which polled 43.5 per cent votes and won 17 seats in the Lok Sabha poll swept the Assembly poll with 235 of the 288 seats.

The MVA can raise accusations of EVM tampering and other unspecified electoral frauds by the BJP but the real reasons for this rout is not far to seek. While the BJP learned its lessons from the Lok Sabha poll setback, the MVA partners, especially the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) was slow, sloppy, and complacent. After analysing the Lok Sabha poll results, the Mahayuti was quick to realise the potential of Muslim votes in several constituencies and more prominently, in constituencies where these votes are above the tipping-balance threshold.

For the BJP, the brief was clear: mobilise the cadres, reach out to party veterans, and more importantly, seek the help of its ideological fountainhead, the RSS. A series of ‘voter awareness meetings’ led by the RSS during the campaign appears to have mobilised large sections of Hindutva sympathisers, prodding them to shed their characteristic apathy and actually queue up to vote. The results are telling – of the 11 seats with more than 35 per cent Muslim voters, the MVA won six and the Mahayuti four.

These results highlight the total irrelevance of smaller parties, with their appeal limited to small sections or caste groups. The Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), led by Uddhav’s estranged cousin Raj Thackeray, was expected to eat into the SS (UBT) base but failed; the MNS fielded 125 candidates and did not win a seat. The Bahujan Vikas Aghadi led by Hitendra Thakur which had three MLAs in the previous Assembly drew a blank. The disappointing performance by SS (UBT) could push some of its senior leaders and a fairly significant number of its workers to the Mahayuti, with an eye on the ensuing Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) election. The party seems to be over for Uddhav. Besides, Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena will now use its political and moral clout to claim ownership of the party headquarters, the prestigious Sena Bhavan.

As for the Congress which once ruled the state, even identifying a strong state-level leader appears near-impossible. Some of its second-rung leaders who are influential in certain pockets could either switch over to the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) led by Ajit Pawar or may even join the BJP. The future seems uncertain if not bleak, not only for major parties like the Congress and the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP, but also for the smaller parties such as the Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi led by Prakash Ambedkar. The coalition of parties solely dependent on Dalit votes fielded 200 candidates in the election – none of them won. Another fringe party, the Swabhimani Paksha led by Raju Shetti, lost all the 19 seats it contested in.

These factors are likely to have a greater impact on the elections to the BMC which has an annual budget that surpasses the budgets of some of the smaller states. The Mahayuti should be alert to the possibility of smaller parties, inconsequential in the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls, upsetting the BJP-SS plans. The BMC election could be a key test for all the parties though the Mahayuti does appear to have an edge.

The massive electoral win has placed immense responsibility on the Mahayuti. The coalition needs to devise its governance agenda with greater alacrity. Maharashtra was once a thriving manufacturing centre with fairly good infrastructure like industrial estates that promoted medium and small-scale production units. Power cuts were unknown. In the past decade or more, the state has lost its position of pre-eminence to Gujarat and Karnataka. But unlike these states, Maharashtra can boast of several tier-two cities which can become centres of production, higher education and the health and wellness industry.

Agriculture in the state is another area that needs a renewed focus. The farm sector has immense potential to power the economy. The Mahayuti leaders need to show maturity and grace in this victory, shun the politics of vendetta, and help the state head towards sustained overall growth.

Maharashtra Assembly poll 2024 results | Check constituency results here

Jharkhand Assembly poll 2024 results | Check constituency results here

Bypoll 2024 results | Check Karnataka results here

Assembly Elections 2024 | The Maharashtra Assembly polls took place against the backdrop of a fractured political landscape in the western state where the Shiv Sena and NCP went up against the Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar factions, even as the BJP and Congress tried to make their mark. Maha Yuti are currently comfortably poised to win. Meanwhile, in Jharkhand, the JMM faced a challenge after Hemant Soren's arrest and Champai, a longstanding party member, joining the BJP, but look set to retain power with its I.N.D.I.A. allies. Check live updates and track the latest coverage, live news, in-depth opinions, and analyses only on Deccan Herald.

Subscribe and follow DH on Whatsapp, X, Facebook, YouTube, and Instagram to never miss out on anything.