India has storms to weather to secure its food systems

With monsoon rains arriving amidst a record-breaking heatwave, India’s farmers breathe a sigh of relief. Yet these two seasons embody the paradox of the climate risks facing Indian agriculture. And for those countries gathering at the Bonn Climate Conference, the message is clear: if the time to repair the roof is when the sun is shining, the time for agriculture to adapt to climate hazards is when the monsoon is on the side of food security.

And for the first time, new research reveals the interconnected climate hazards – including droughts, floods, landslides, extreme temperatures, and more – affecting the food supply at both national and state level in India, identifying the priorities for adaptation according to different risks, crops and regions.

With this new understanding, we can now begin to increase the precision of our climate action and the resilience policies for national food security by minimising the impact of potential climate extremes, which affect all states.

To begin with, our findings reinforce the need to adapt to the most appropriate climate risk in specific contexts. Understanding which climate risks pose the greatest threat to food systems helps policymakers focus only on the most appropriate and impactful interventions.

For instance, our evidence shows that drought has by far the greatest impact on production and the inter-state food trade in India, with the recent heatwave potentially causing a 6% drop in wheat production. With drought becoming more common due to climate change, farmers should be incentivised to adopt better water management practices, including watershed management, in the most affected areas, particularly the North Western region of the country. These rising threats also demonstrate the need to focus our adaptation on the most vulnerable crops. Just as different regions experience different hazards, different commodities also face different risks in accordance with a wide range of climate hazards.

In particular, we know that cereal crops, which represent just under half of the total food supply, are at a greater risk, particularly to droughts, but also to all other climate hazards and should be prioritised for adaptation.

In these cases, adaptation can also mean diversification, as by growing a more diverse selection of crops, farmers can improve their resilience to climate hazards and continue to keep intact the nation’s food supply.

Finally, our research highlights the importance of focusing adaptation in those areas exposed to the greatest risks. Failing to recognise the varying impacts the climate hazard can have at a sub-national level means those regions will face greater impact from these hazards, which in turn will pose a greater risk to the national food supply.

Our research showed the largest climate hazard risks to state food supply are in Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Assam. These most at-risk areas should be prioritised and given investments in early warning systems, and sustainable adaptation of agriculture.

For instance, our new initiative, Building Systemic Resilience Against Climate Variability and Extremes (ClimBeR) builds on years of CGIAR climate research plans to bundle climate information services and climate-resilient practices within a framework of supportive, socially-inclusive policies and institutions, which are invaluable in building the long-term resilience of farmers.

During times of crisis, it may also be necessary to support these at-risk regions with food assistance, by providing a smooth access to food reserves or through agricultural contingency plans, including early warning information and agronomic advice to help farmers mitigate drought risks and prevent cascading risks to the national food supply.

Furthermore, with an increased risk of food shortages due to climate change, there is a clear need for infrastructure which can support relief during crises.

This includes food storage and road connectivity for market access, so that the most at-risk regions can access the much-needed assistance during periods of exposure to climate hazards.

When times are good and the rains fall as expected, it is tempting to see this as “business as usual”. But it is precisely when food systems have the luxury of preferred conditions that governments, environmentalists and farmers can afford to take steps to diversify, increase capacity, and build resilience for future extremes.

That way, when the rains do fade out, droughts set in, or temperatures rise, the entire food system can weather the storm.

(The writer is Research Group Leader – Water Risk to Development and Resilience, International Water Management Institute (IWMI))