India should know how many people it has. It doesn’t

By Mihir Sharma

India may have 1.4 billion people, or thereabouts. It’s probably the world’s most populous country, and may have overtaken China in 2023. We can’t say for sure, because it doesn’t know how many it governs, where they live, or how many are citizens. A census has not been conducted since 2011, the registration of births and deaths was minimal for decades, and it’s rare to have detailed documents.

In states like Bihar, this problem is magnified. Home to 130 million but with a human development score similar to Haiti or the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Bihar is crucial to the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party’s national hold on power. So it isn’t surprising that politics in India right now revolves entirely around the state’s election in the fall.

Even as the most populous state of Uttar Pradesh soured somewhat on Prime Minister Narendra Modi in last year’s national vote, Bihar has stayed solid. The BJP won three-quarters of its constituencies, the same proportion it did in 2014. The party needs to demonstrate it still has a chokehold on politics there. The opposition is certain that, to eke out the win it needs, the ruling party is misusing government machinery — including through voter suppression.

A 25-year-old Bihari, for example, was born at a time when the state was even poorer, and just 3.7% of births were registered with the government. Official blindness makes planning and delivering social services very difficult. During emergencies — such as the pandemic lockdowns — the government didn’t even know how many internal migrants would be affected by their inability to work. It was surprised by the many hundreds of thousands who trekked back home to their villages from the cities in search of food and shelter.

Many of those laborers were heading to Bihar. They would have had little proof of their identity on them, other than a digital identity number and perhaps a voter ID card. If the latter is taken away and the first rendered useless, you can become not just a non-citizen but a non-person. In some poorer parts of the country, democracy can look a little like feudalism: Access to state services is closely linked to your ability to provide local strongmen with political support. Staying on the voter roll can be a matter of life or death.

In June, the election commission announced that it would revise Bihar’s voter lists. The opposition challenged this decision immediately — both through protests and litigation — fearing that as many as 30 million Biharis could be struck off the electoral rolls, possibly giving the BJP an unearned edge.

Across the world, an increase in the documentation required to vote privileges richer, better-connected groups. In the US, for example, House Republicans pushed through a requirement in April that voters provide proof of citizenship when registering — usually through a passport or some other form of REAL ID. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer has described this effort as being “about making it harder to vote and easier to cheat.”

The same arguments are being rehearsed in India now. The BJP insists that too many non-citizens — which it refers to, ominously, as “infiltrators” — are capable of voting. The opposition fears that Muslims and other marginalized groups, which typically don’t vote for the BJP, are being disenfranchised.

The requirements for voter registration that the election commission has set would be difficult to satisfy even in most of the West. Those born after 1987, for example, must provide both their birth certificates or passports, as well as a parent’s. Those born after 2004 will have to prove both parents were born in India. This sounds particularly unrealistic in Bihar, which was barely governed for decades.

Indians have long muddled through with a mix of IDs, most of which serve different purposes. Not many have passports and driving licenses, but many have “voter ID cards,” which the election commission has handed out since the 1980s, or “ration cards,” which are issued by state governments and entitle you to subsidized food. More than a decade ago, New Delhi also introduced a digital ID — called Aadhaar — which was meant to simplify this confusing mess. Almost everyone now has an Aadhaar number, and the system serves as the backbone for everything from health records to digital payments. But it doesn’t prove your right to vote.

India’s election commission was long respected for its independence and neutrality, but that reputation has been severely eroded during Modi’s tenure. Its officials should recognize that they have a responsibility to ensure every possible vote is cast. And political leaders should finally own up to the problems created by their inability to count their people, not take advantage of them.