India’s EV race with China depends on trains

By Andy Mukherjee

The road to faster adoption of electric vehicles in India will pass through the railways — not the romantic train travel that stirred the imagination of writers for over a century and continues to inspire Bollywood, but efficient high-speed journeys.

If linking trains to EVs seems odd, that’s only because the complementary nature of the two modes of transport has gone unexplored. That’s changing. A recent study of 328 cities in China shows that there may indeed be a connection.

The research covers the period from 2010 to 2023. Those were crucial years, both for China’s world-beating EV penetration — 48 per cent currently, including hybrids — and the expansion of its high-speed rail. What began with a single line in 2008 now covers 96 per cent of areas with 5,00,000 or more people. Meanwhile, Tesla Inc. arrived in China in 2014, and by 2023 the country had 22 million plugin cars on its roads, more than half of the global total.

However, EV adoption rates weren’t the same everywhere. Cities that got newly connected to the rail network saw an extra bump. “HSR connectivity significantly increases EV market share and sales (volume), with average increases of 1.22 percentage points and 91.39 per cent,” the researchers from University of Pennsylvania, Fudan University and the Chinese University of Hong Kong conclude. An extensive and well-integrated high-speed-rail system, they note, serves as a “reliable complement to EVs.”

This finding has implications for India, where less than 3 per cent of cars sold last year were purely battery-operated. Buyers’ reluctance stems from insufficient public charging stations. There are only 25,000 to serve a sprawling geography. Companies have little incentive to build a network like China’s 3 million charging points because most car owners in India power up at home. While that’s fine for city driving, getting on the highway causes extreme range anxiety.

India has made highways the centrepiece of its transport infrastructure. The railway tracks, first laid by the sub-continent’s British colonial rulers, have suffered from decades of underinvestment. So-called express services ran at an average speed of 32 miles per hour (51 kilometres per hour) between April and November 2023, while ordinary trains clocked 22 miles. At 220 mph, China’s high-speed rail is up to 10 times faster.

The Chinese network will exceed 31,000 miles (50,000 kilometers) this year. India’s is yet to get going. The first bullet train, connecting the commercial hub of Mumbai with Ahmedabad in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s home state of Gujarat on India’s western coast, was expected by 2022. The 316-mile line being built with Japanese money and technical assistance is now scheduled for a 2026 launch.

India has many competing uses for the $100 billion-plus China has invested in its high-speed rail, though the argument for prioritizing fast long-distance mass transport is also strong. Previously, I have highlighted research that shows a connection between a Chinese city getting on the high-speed network and a jump in its exporters’ access to global markets. The link with EVs bolsters the investment case.

For a sugar rush among Indian EV buyers, however, don’t look to trains. Leave that to Donald Trump. Under pressure from the US president, New Delhi may be forced to slash its 110 per cent import tax on cars. Following Elon Musk’s meeting with Modi in Washington recently Tesla is set to bring in a few thousand cars into India over the coming months, according to Bloomberg News. More competition from Tesla, Suzuki Motor Corp. and BYD Co. will shake up a market dominated by two players: Tata Motors Ltd. controls 58 per cent; JSW MG Motor, a joint venture between China’s SAIC Motor Corp and India’s JSW Group, has a 25 per cent share.

New models may get EV penetration up to American or European levels of 10 per cent to 25 per cent, but to follow China’s 45 per cent lead, subsidies or tax rebates won’t be enough. India needs fast trains. Modi’s party has promised three high-speed rail lines — in east, north and south — in addition to the one in western India. Even if the 74-year-old leader is unable to bring them to fruition in his political career, he should get them started.