India’s Russia policy needs bold choices, not safe bets

The Russia-Ukraine war has redrawn maps, and India must decide how to engage with new realities

‘All bets are off’ has been one of the most frequently used clichés to describe a situation in diplomacy for centuries. As Russian President Vladimir Putin begins his crowded official engagements on December 5 in New Delhi, this cliché rings truer than during any of the previous 22 annual summits between India and Russia.

Putin’s previous visits to India have been predictable — from the ‘Declaration on the India-Russia Strategic Partnership’ in 2000 and its elevation to ‘Special and Privileged Strategic Partnership’ 10 years later. These were known in advance.

The unpredictability around the 23rd India-Russia annual summit was such that most ambassadors in the capital’s diplomatic enclave of Chanakyapuri sent out secret cables to their headquarters last month that Putin would arrive in New Delhi on the evening of December 5. This has been an open secret in Chanakyapuri. On November 28, the MEA abruptly announced that Putin’s State Visit would begin on December 4 instead, and that the Russian President would return home the next day.

The muddle underlines the high security challenges in preparing for Putin’s travels since the war in Ukraine began. Exactly two years ago, when Putin visited the United Arab Emirates, his visit was made public after he had left Abu Dhabi for Riyadh. In Saudi Arabia, word had been put out in advance that the kingdom’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, would go to Moscow. Instead, Putin landed in Riyadh.

Despite assertions in the Indian media that Narendra Modi’s private dinner at the Prime Minister’s residence for Putin soon after his arrival was in reciprocation of a similar gesture by the Russian president during the 22nd annual summit in Moscow last year, they are not the same. Putin took Modi to his gorgeous dacha (country house) on the outskirts of Moscow, where foreign visitors are normally not hosted. The Prime Minister’s residence on Lok Kalyan Marg is another Lutyen’s bungalow, which has been extensively renovated. Taking Putin’s warm, exceptional gesture into account, Modi wanted to take Putin to Gujarat this week on a similar gesture. But Putin’s schedule and security mandates did not allow his travel to Gujarat.

Nearly two years ago, a score of Indians and Russians deeply committed to the bilateral friendship met in camera in New Delhi to brainstorm about the future of the India-Russia relationship. This author was one of those who participated on the Indian side. The meeting’s unpublished report has been seen at the highest political levels in the Kremlin and on Raisina Hill. It concluded that for the relationship to thrive, more meat has to be added to every aspect of it — from space cooperation and science to fintech and tourism. Tie-ups must keep pace with extraordinary global circumstances. The old ways will no longer do.

This week’s Modi-Putin summit is an opportunity to think out of the box, stabilise the relationship, avoid hesitation, and take bold political action. The Ukraine conflict will only end on one variation or another of United States President Donald Trump’s current peace proposal. Putin does not trust any other world leader as much in peace moves. It is clear that Trump is convinced that Crimea, which Putin successfully integrated into Russia, will never be given back to Ukraine. Any final settlement of the Ukraine war will be based on some give and take on the oblasts (regions) of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, which are mostly under Russian control as the war approaches its fourth year.

On March 6, 2014, even before Russia had completed its takeover of Crimea, India said Russia has “legitimate interests” in the Crimean peninsula. The statement by then National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon, was a bold step, a shot in the arm for India’s ties with Russia. Twelve days after Menon’s assertion, Putin telephoned then Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and briefed him on a referendum and the subsequent creation of the Republic of Crimea as a federal ‘Subject’ of Russia.

Under war-time conditions, referendums have been conducted in Russia’s ‘new regions’, the four oblasts. They also took part in the Russian presidential elections last year. The Kremlin is pouring money into former Ukrainian territories which are now with Russia for post-war reconstruction.

During some preparatory meetings on the current Modi-Putin summit, the Russians sounded out India on a Menon-like gesture on Crimea regarding the status of the four oblasts. These regions also want economic engagement with India, formally or loosely. It does not make sense for India to follow the West with a hands-off policy on Russia’s new regions on the premise that they are ‘occupied’. A redrawn map of Ukraine is an unalterable reality, which will be part of a peace treaty through Trumpian Pax Americana.

For India to wait till then or to follow China’s lead in dealing with the old Ukrainian regions is like the proverbial locking of stables after the horses have bolted. Trump should have no problem with such an Indian initiative if he is taken into confidence and given credit for the new realities of the Black Sea region.

K P Nayar has extensively covered West Asia and reported from Washington as a foreign correspondent for 15 years.

(Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.)