Israel-Iran conflict: Regional hostilities, global stakes

The much-feared regional conflict has arrived. Israel and Iran are not contiguous neighbours, and hence, the ongoing missile, drone and air strikes have been violating the airspace of Iraq, Jordan, and the Palestinian territories. The ballistic missiles from the Houthis in Yemen cannot reach Israel without flying through the Saudi airspace.

There are suggestions that for striking Iran, Israeli aircraft have been using the Syrian airspace. Thus, the military confrontation has already taken a regional dimension.

Since Israel launched its military offensive in the early hours of Friday, aerial strikes and escalations have increased. With the stated objective of destroying Iranian nuclear capabilities, Israel went after key nuclear installations across Iran and targeted key military figures and over two dozen nuclear scientists.

While the extent of damage is yet to be verified, the attacks are a severe setback to the Iranian nuclear programme. However, as some Israeli officials admit, these escalatory military offensives may not be sufficient to accomplish the denuclearisation of Iran which has built secured mechanisms – such as fortified underground bunkers – to preserve its vital assets. To overcome these hurdles, Benjamin Netanyahu needs the unflinching American support in the form of bunker-busting bombs and permission to use them. Right now, they are not coming, and Israel might have to look for less effective ground-based sabotage tactics and cyber-attacks.

Iran is sending conflicting messages. At one level, there are suggestions that it is prodding countries such as Oman and Qatar to an American intervention. The former is the conduit for the ongoing US-Iran negotiations over a possible nuclear deal, and the next round was scheduled for Sunday but had to be cancelled due to the outbreak of hostilities. Qatar has been Iran’s key ally in the Gulf Cooperation Council. At the same time, it is resolute in not negotiating any agreement under fire.

Interestingly, as the Iranian counter-offensive was underway, during his first meeting with foreign diplomats in Tehran, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi observed: “We are defending ourselves; our defence is entirely legitimate... This defence is our response to aggression. If the aggression stops, naturally, our responses will also stop.” The willingness to conditionally end the hostilities gives a glimmer of hope for a truce, however distant it may be.

The escalation of the conflict manifests at two levels; through waves of drone and missile attacks, Iran was able to penetrate the Israeli defences and strike several important targets, including an oil refinery in Haifa, the Weizmann Institute, and scores of civilian habitats. Time-tested Home Front protective arrangements and preparation have kept the human casualties minimal, but the destruction has been devastating and traumatic. Responding to the Iranian attacks on its civilians, Israel has escalated and attacked the Iranian energy sector, including gas fields, oil installations, and storage facilities. Any shortage of gas supplies or price spike would be volatile as Iran is a rentier economy with highly subsidised oil prices.

Iranian media have been accusing some regional and Western countries, including the US, of helping Israel and warned of the consequences. Countries such as Jordan have militarily intervened to shoot Iranian drones flying over their territories. There are suggestions that other countries are playing an enabling role in the Israeli attacks.

The Arab world’s response

The ongoing confrontation has also exposed the weaknesses of the Iran-led Axis of Resistance, namely, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and the Popular Mobilisation Force in Iraq. These proxies are not in a position to reciprocate the Iranian patronage. During the past two years, Israel has managed to destroy their military powers, and the political change in Syria following the fall of Assad in December has further weakened Iran’s regional influence.

Despite their quick and unequivocal condemnation of the Israeli aggression, Iran’s Arab neighbours are petrified by a nuclear Iran. It is worth noting that the much-touted 2015 nuclear deal was not well-received in the Middle East, particularly among the Gulf Arab countries. Israel is vocal and unapologetic about a nuclear Iran as an existential threat. The Arabs feel the same way though they don’t admit it. The regional desire for an early settlement cannot ignore the larger demand to stop, freeze and reverse the progress in the Iranian nuclear programme.

There is apprehension that if cornered, Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz, a choke-point between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, which accounts for the transit of approximately 20 per cent of global oil and gas and is the only export channel for countries such as Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar. This will have a cascading effect on the global supply and prices of oil and gas.

President Trump has reportedly vetoed an Israeli plan to target the Supreme Leader and, in the words of an official in the administration – “Have the Iranians killed an American yet? No. Until they do, we’re not even talking about going after the political leadership.” The latest warning to the Iranians, asking them to leave areas where sensitive “military weapons manufacturing facilities and their supporting institutions” are located could be part of that strategy to further increase the resentment against the clergy regime.

However, should the conflict continue and escalate, one should be prepared for far-reaching domestic upheavals in both countries. Whenever the time comes, Netanyahu might be replaced through a ballot. Such a prospect is not available in Iran. In recent years, the regime has faced widespread criticism due to economic, social, and political problems and has been the target of periodic public protests. Thus, even while confronting Israel, the regime will have to ensure and retain its legitimacy and survival from within.

(The writer teaches contemporary Middle East at the Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi)