JOIN USMaharashtra: The ringmaster and the caged tiger
'When a calamity strikes threatening to take all, the wise devise a way by which at least half could be saved,' so goes a Sanskrit saying.
Uddhav Thackeray's decision that Shiv Sena MLAs and MPs will vote for the NDA's presidential candidate, Droupadi Murmu, signals that the beleaguered former chief minister is acting according to the old saying. The 'tiger' is in trouble and a bit tired too.
By suddenly plumping for Murmu, he has sent a signal to none other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi, apparently reminding him of the close ties the Thackerays had with him since his Gujarat days.
When the late Bal Thackeray was at the helm of the Sena and Modi was facing a political crisis after the 2002 Gujarat riots, the Sena founder stood like a rock behind the then Gujarat CM telling Atal Bihari Vajpayee and L K Advani not to change their chief minister. Bal Thackeray even sent a two-member team of party leaders to Gandhinagar to publicly express support to the beleaguered Gujarat CM.
But behind the Sena's sudden volte-face is the fact that Uddhav Thackeray wants to avoid taking a position other than that of the BJP-led NDA in the polls since the majority of the 50-odd Sena MLAs are with the rebel camp led by Chief Minister Eknath Shinde.
It is a cautious stance ahead of a long and arduous legal battle. Uddhav Thackeray does not know what is in store for his party on the issue of the anti-defection act. He fears that an adverse ruling by the courts could jeopardise his loyalists. He has also taken the step to avoid a formal split in the Shiv Sena Parliamentary Party which is sharply divided between the loyalists and the rebels. Whatever the motive, one of the MPs had written a letter to Uddhav Thackeray pitching support to Murmu, a tribal woman leader.
With his back to the wall, the phlegmatic Sena chief could not have done better. The all-powerful BJP, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, is bent on using all its might to crush the Sena. Time is of the essence for Uddhav Thackeray as he has to keep his remaining flock together and safe while working feverishly to set his house in order.
Times have changed. The Sena can be dispensed with, so it is hard to say how much the PM would be pleased by Uddhav Thackeray's gesture and whether he would reciprocate in any manner to lessen the heat on the Sena. Those who know Modi and his politics understand that he does not care much for those coming in his way and turning foes from friends.
An example in recent years is that of N Chandrababu Naidu, who once played the role of kingmaker at the Centre. After the TDP supremo, whose party was the second largest party in the NDA after the BJP in the last Lok Sabha, parted ways with the BJP, Modi has made matters difficult for Naidu, once a high-profile national leader, in his home state of Andhra Pradesh.
It is a foregone conclusion that Murmu is set to become the next president with a comfortable margin whether the Sena votes for it or not. The moral of the story is that the Sena's vote could be a goodwill gesture, but the BJP couldn't be bothered. It feels that it is on the top of its game in Maharashtra.
Yashwant Sinha, the Opposition candidate in the presidential polls, was not far off the mark when he alleged that Uddhav Thackeray had acted under pressure. The dramatic developments in the Sena in the past month result from an ailing Uddhav Thackeray lowering his guard in the hope and belief that all was well within the party organisation. This was suicidal at a time when an angry BJP was crying from the rooftops that the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi comprising the Sena, Sharad Pawar's NCP and the Congress is an unnatural alliance and would come crashing sooner than later. An ambitious Eknath Shinde became a willing tool of the BJP, and the rest is history.
The Shiv Sena was once considered an impregnable fortress defended ferociously by its chief, the late Bal Thackeray. He attracted extreme emotions from his supporters and detractors alike. He had an iron hold over the organisation, and those who left it feared for their life, at least in the immediate aftermath.
Uddhav Thackeray did not carry his father's charisma but made a mark as a calm politician who knew when to strike. While Sena leader Sanjay Raut has insisted that a vote for Murmu does not mean his party has joined the BJP-supported rebel Sena camp, Uddhav Thackeray's move showed how the once roaring tiger has become caged and how the intense political heat has started affecting it. Only the fiercely loyal would buy Raut's claim that the Sena never takes decisions under pressure.
Observers of the Maharashtra political scene insist that Uddhav Thackeray's move is a sort of guerilla warfare by the Sena, which has one eye on the Supreme Court and the other on the Election Commission. He has no illusions about Modi.
The move by Uddhav Thackeray is unlikely to break the Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi as everyone in the Opposition space understands who is the 'ringmaster' in the political circus enacted in the premier state of the country. It is an acid test for Uddhav Thackeray to keep the Sena flag flying.
(The authors are senior journalists)
Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.