Geopolitics of Pakistan's elections

While Pakistan Army Chief Asim Munir expects transactional gains, in Washington DC, there is bound to be some scepticism, after reading the tea leaves this weekend whether he is going to be able to deliver.

The more things change, the more they stay the same — that is one way of looking at the Pakistani elections held on February 8.

There was something obscene in the way Army Chief Asim Munir, someone with little political credibility but not lacking in delusions of grandeur, tried to rearrange the political order. But Pakistan refused to be a tin-pot nation. The result is tragicomic.

Half-way through the counting of votes when it seemed Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaaf (PTI) leader Imran Khan’s followers contesting as independents might garner a sweeping majority of seats, taking advantage of the suspension of communication services, Munir’s moving finger wrote the script, and having written, decided in his naïveté that ‘Nor all thy piety nor all thy wit, can cancel half a line of it.’

Khan has the last laugh. He emerged with the single biggest mandate, and that was a tight slap on Munir’s face. But military men in high positions who lack erudition, won’t be discouraged, and Munir pushed former Prime Minister and Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) leader Nawaz Sharif and Pakistan Peoples Party chief Bilawal Bhutto Zardari to form a coalition government. But Munir has made it abundantly clear that he intends to be in the driving seat, and even held out an ominous threat that there is nothing sacrosanct about an elected government having to complete its term in office.

Where India or Bangladesh would score above Pakistan is that a regime change outside of the democratic practice at the behest of a general is inconceivable. All their ‘democracy deficit’, deficiencies of governance, and distaste of the culture of consensual politics notwithstanding, elections provide legitimacy to rule. Unless Munir retreats to the barracks and leaves the politicians a free hand, Pakistan will continue to be a troubled nation. Simply put, Khan should have been allowed to complete his term, for good or bad, and seek a renewed mandate on a level playing field.

On the other hand, today’s Pakistan is a restive country and may be getting ripe for a volcanic eruption sooner than we think. Khan’s big crime was that he didn’t cancel his long-planned February 23-24, 2022 visit to Moscow, the first State visit by a Pakistani head of government in two decades. It was always going to be a risky gambit against the backdrop of rapidly rising tensions between Russia and the West, but Washington lost its cool and April 10, 2022, ousted him from power with some able help from Munir. Can this theatre of the absurd repeat when Prime Minister Narendra Modi schedules his Russia visit and a bilateral summit with President Vladimir Putin after their re-election in the months ahead? Of course, not! 

Americans know whom to trifle with. They knew they could get away with murder if the general in Rawalpindi were okay with it. In this case, the latter is only too eager to be an accomplice provided there is a quid pro quo. Munir’s five-day United States visit in late December, even as he was nearing home stretch in the charade of the February 8 poll, was well-timed to strike a Faustian deal. But while Munir expects transactional gains, in the DC, there is bound to be some scepticism, after reading the tea leaves this weekend whether he is going to be able to deliver. 

No doubt, the geopolitical stakes are exceedingly high for the US — the imperative need to return to Afghanistan, a strategic hub; the throttling of the Belt and Road Initiative; keeping Pakistan’s relations with Iran on the boil; smothering Pakistan’s BRICS membership; and, simply put, retaining a strong presence in Pakistan at a time when the ground beneath the feet is shifting in West Asia, while, on the other hand, Iran’s surge is becoming irreversible.

From an Indian perspective, what does the geopolitics of Pakistan entail at this point in time? Succinctly put, precious little.

Indian analysts roll on like retreaded tyres: Sharif shares a ‘Bania’ culture; he’s ‘India-friendly’; Modi has a ‘personal equation’ with him. Sharif must be painfully aware that his party is no longer growing, and the Pakistani electorate is not only younger but spiteful of the military’s interference. Yet, he knows Munir is watching every breath he takes, every move he makes, every bond he breaks, and every step he takes. Therefore, like the tramps in Samuel Beckett’s Waiting for Godot, we can only keep on hoping.

Nawaz Sharif is simply not strong enough to assimilate India’s abrogation of Article 370 as the new fact on the ground. And our new holy city plans in Kashi and Mathura won’t help matters, either.

(M K Bhadrakumar is a former diplomat.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.