Coronavirus lockdown: Still the right choice?

Is the lockdown an over-reach? In our anxiety about the potential health hazard posed by the coronavirus, have we taken an extreme risk on the economic front? It's important to ask this question.

What's happened has happened, and there were enough reasons to warrant going into lockdown. The plain fact is, we have a weak public health system, and allowing it to be overrun by a fast-spreading virus would have been disastrous. It's reasonable to think that a lockdown was needed to convert a fast-spreading risk into a slow spreading one. Let's grant that. But what about now?

We've been hearing daily from the different states, and also get a compilation of the situation from the Centre on a daily basis. According to all the data we have from this, the virus is now spreading slower than it was doing four weeks ago when the lockdown began. It also appears that every state has improved its capacity to respond to its spread, compared to what it was then.

That's good news. But it also means that the original goal of the lockdown is largely achieved. Which means we can -- and must -- ask afresh, does a lockdown still make sense, or should we start to ease it back?

One fear is that if we lift the lockdown the number of cases will spike again, and we may not be able to cope with that. But that fear can be expressed at any time, even in December. There has to be a point at which we feel confident that we have done enough to overcome this fear. And at that point, we have to take a chance that we will be able to deal with the rate of infections if it spikes again. This is what we do with every other disease. That's why we don't shut down to deal with malaria or flu.

What will give us the nerve to take that step? Three things need to happen. First, we need to see the virus spreading at a lower rate than in the past -- that seems to be already happening. Second, there must be some hope of better care during treatment, either because some existing drug seems to help or because antibodies from cured patients subdues the virus. There are faint rays of hope on this front.

The third part, which is increasingly becoming the most important one, is that we need to develop another fear that is greater than our fear of the virus -- namely, that the economic damage unfolding before us if we delay lifting the lockdown could be worse than what the virus does to us in the months ahead.

It's not easy to come to this conclusion. But we know from decades of experience what happens when people are pushed to the edge. Every day of the lockdown, thousands of people will go into bondage because they can't pay their debts, thousands of women will be forced into prostitution to make ends meet, children will be forced to work to stay alive, and many, many people will take their lives in desperation. We know all this because we've seen it before, all over the country and over many years.

We now have two risks to balance -- the virus could swamp us, or the collapsing economy could do the same thing. One of them could very well be worse than the other, and what's needed is to find some way to make the right call. Perhaps, four weeks ago, we were right in choosing to risk the economy and save people's lives. But today, we are in a different situation, with more hope of taming the virus’ spread and a very real risk of economic catastrophe.

This choice requires courage. And at times like this, politicians have to muster the maturity to do the right thing in the nation's interest. Opposition parties, especially in the states, should support governments to take this step. It's a hard-enough decision to take without having to fear that opponents will pounce on you if things go wrong.

Ruling parties also need to show maturity. This is not their choice alone. It requires collective action across the political spectrum. The wise course is to take the opposition into confidence to make this tough decision sooner. It means sharing some of the credit when the economy comes back to life, but surely it is more important to save millions of families from ruin. This is not a time for politics.