Return of the Abdullahs

While NC has been rewarded for its consistent stance, the mandate is not necessarily a vote of trust

Farooq Abdullah, three-time chief minister, three-time Member of Parliament, the president of the National Conference, and the son of the party’s founder, Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, used to half-jokingly, half-seriously remark that “Geelani (Ali Shah) and I are the only honest politicians in Jammu and Kashmir. He has always been for Pakistan, and I for India.” Oversimplification aside, this was a valid statement. Many politicians in Jammu and Kashmir have shifted their stances, reflecting the respective moods of the time. Syed Geelani and Farooq Abdullah remained steadfast in their beliefs, which didn’t change with the changing political climates. This may be the reason why people have chosen Farooq’s party, the National Conference, in an electoral battle that succeeded one of the most politically charged periods of history in Jammu and Kashmir. The period, however, was defined by politics done to Kashmir rather than in it.

This year’s elections were the first held in Kashmir since 2014. In the previous election, a broken mandate had brought together the unlikely alliance of the Peoples Democratic Party and the Bharatiya Janata Party. That coalition ended abruptly when the BJP withdrew its support for the PDP-led government in 2019. While other parties could have come together to form a government for the remaining term of a year and a half, no such attempts were entertained by the governor, who cited implausible reasons—like the Raj Bhavan’s fax machine not working—to prevent a new coalition government from being formed in the state. This led many to suspect a larger political plan was underway. Few, however, anticipated what followed on August 5, 2019: the Centre withdrew Jammu and Kashmir’s special semi-autonomous status, demoted it to a Union Territory, and carved out Ladakh as a separate UT. Since then, J&K has been devoid of democratic representation and has been ruled directly from the Centre through the governor’s office. The revocation of the special status was accompanied by severe State repression, arrests, and even detention of pro-India mainstream politicians, including the two Abdullahs and their fierce rival Mehbooba Mufti, and the banning of separatist organisations. The recent assembly elections, therefore, were seen by many as a referendum on the 2019 decision and a chance for people to voice their opinions after years of direct rule from New Delhi.

In this three-phase election, the voter turnout exceeded 63%, signalling a shift from the longstanding trend of boycotting elections. Boycotts—which became popular after the alleged rigging of the 1987 elections in favour of the NC-Congress alliance and against the Muslim United Front (MUF)—had long overshadowed electoral participation in the region, especially in the valley. After the 1987 elections, a faction of the MUF took up arms and formed the Jammu Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF). After this much-tainted election, Farooq Abdullah was appointed the Chief Minister. This was incidentally also the last election in which Syed Ali Shah Geelani participated, who won from Sopore but later resigned in protest against the rigging. Since then, all elections have seen a significant number of people boycotting polls in Jammu and Kashmir, especially in the valley. The high voter turnout suggests that this time around, the boycott option was not taken up by many. The historically pro-Pakistan Jamaat e Islami and Engineer Rashid’s historically pro-plebiscite Awami Ittehad Party were the new forces across the Valley in this election. Some believe these parties were allowed to compete, possibly even backed by the Centre, to use the separatist sentiment to cut votes of mainstream parties like the NC. However, these once-popular pro-separatism or pro-plebiscite parties were decisively rejected by the electorate in this election.

The NC emerged as the single largest party sweeping the Valley. Its ally, the Congress, managed to win a few seats in the Jammu region. On October 16, Omar Abdullah was sworn in as the first chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir since its degradation. The composition of the cabinet, with five ministers and none from Congress, makes it clear that this is a NC-led government with Congress as a junior partner. What is not clear, however, is the extent of power this government will hold under the hitherto unknown Union Territory set up. With this victory, the Abdullahs can claim that their consistent and unvarying stance has been rewarded by the people, while forces that attempted
to undermine them—whether from Delhi or within the Valley—have been defeated. They can also claim that the
people chose them over those who claimed to lead the Tehreek or the freedom movement.

There is, however, another way to look at this election result. The people saw the Jamaat e Islami differently. It was an organisation that had widespread support and membership. But they could not get themselves to accept Geelani’s Jamaat e Islami as a negotiator with New Delhi. Many people have rejected the Jamaat’s candidature out of respect for it rather than hate. They probably thought it was below Jamaat’s legacy to engage in mainstream politics.

Engineer Rashid and his Awami Ittehad Party, who campaigned for a plebiscite most of his life, have been respected for their honesty and outspoken fearlessness. His popularity showed when he upended Omar Abdullah in a contest from jail during the Lok Sabha election. His popularity came from the immovability of his stance. However, the fact that he was released from prison just before the assembly elections planted doubt in people’s minds. With the tag of a vote cutter or an unknowing collaborator hovering above his head this time, people did not want to see another hero, who may well be the last of his kind, fall.

The mandate for the National Conference isn’t necessarily a mandate of trust. They have been chosen as the only possible doers of ‘mainstream politics’ that others cannot. The NC has been chosen for negotiations that most Kashmiris believe are bound to fail. If the NC fails, or worse, decides to betray the trust of the people, it won’t be seen as a surprise. In their place, if, instead, Jamaat e Islaami, with its separatist past, or Engineer Rashid, with his years of support for a plebiscite, had worked with the central government and publicly altered their historical stands as elected representatives, that would have brought about an end to any logical opposition to the centre’s treatment of Kashmir in the past few years. Despite the name-calling they are currently facing on the mainland, in Kashmir, the Abdullahs have always been seen as an appendage of New Delhi. They have never been accepted as anything more than representatives of a limited mainstream in Jammu and Kashmir. While any success that they may have might be welcomed, their failures will be happily disowned. That, for now, and for a significantly foreseeable future, is their blessing as well as their curse.

(The writer is a PhD scholar from Shiv Nadar University)