JOIN USAccording to a United Nations report, World Population Prospects 2019, the world’s population is expected to increase by two billion in the next 30 years, from 7.7 billion at present to 9.7 billion in 2050, and India is projected to overtake China as the most populous country by 2027. China’s fertility rate dropped from 6.5 to 1.69 while India’s rate dropped from 5.7 to
2.24 in the last 50 years. Much of India’s most backward areas like UP, Bihar, and West Bengal have fertility rates well above 3 and that will account for the fast growth of overall numbers in the country in the coming years. The growth in the rural areas will be much more than in the urban areas. India is estimated to have to a population of 1.5 billion by 2050. It will peak at 1.65 billion by 2059.
About half the growth in the world’s population in the next 30 years will be in the poorer countries, including India, Pakistan, Indonesia and some African countries. The changes in size, composition and distribution of population will have important consequences for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which are the UN-recognised targets for economic prosperity and social well-being, to be achieved by 2030. There will be huge pressure on resources, reminding the world of a Malthusian scenario, and major social and political consequences. The uneven growth in population, and the resulting differences in its age-wise composition, will lead to migration of people from countries with younger people to those with older populations. India will have more younger people than older people in the coming years and for many decades to come. The median age of India’s population will only be 28.4 years in 2020, compared to 38.4 years in China. This presents many opportunities, but there are even bigger challenges to face.
The existing population and the hundreds of millions who will be added will have to be provided food, shelter, education and healthcare, and the State’s record in this is not great. Infrastructure like transport and power will need to be improved and industry and agriculture will have to grow much faster. All this, without damaging the environment. While these challenges have to be taken up, efforts should also be made to bring down the population growth rate without compulsion and coercion. At the same time, the temptation to blame the minorities for the fast rise of population should be resisted. The fear that minorities will swamp the country, expressed every now and then by prominent people of a certain persuasion, is totally unfounded. Economic development, social justice and empowerment of women are the best methods to check population growth, and they are equally effective for all communities.