Sunak has the weight of history against him

By Matthew Brooker

Time is the factor that weighs most heavily against Rishi Sunak in Britain’s general election. The prime minister surprised most observers, including many in his own party, by opting to go to the voters in July rather than waiting until the autumn or winter. Yet a tactical decision bounded by a window of months matters far less than the accumulated legacy of 14 years of Conservative rule.

That period in office is the longest unbroken stretch for either of the UK’s two main political parties in the past century other than the 18 years of Conservative government that began with Margaret Thatcher’s victory in 1979. Parties that hold power for such extended spells become subject to an inevitable process of complacency and decay, and ultimately to boredom and disillusionment among the electorate.

Opinion polls have signaled for months that the nation already accepts the desirability of change, consistently giving the opposition Labour Party a lead of 20 points or more. Bucking the gravitational pull of that trend may not be impossible, but it is extremely unlikely. Bookmakers are quoting odds of as short as 1/50 on Labour winning the most seats in the next parliament (meaning that a $50 bet would return $51), with most having the Conservatives at 10/1 or longer. Even that may be a generous assessment: The Economist’s prediction model makes the Tories more like a 100-to-1 shot to retain their majority.

Sunak’s election announcement exemplified the unresolvable contradiction of his pitch, as the continuity candidate who nonetheless represents a break with the chaos and dysfunction of the past. Speaking outside 10 Downing Street, the prime minister said that he came into office “above all, to restore economic stability.” Sunak may have been referring to the pandemic, having prefaced his remarks by recalling the furlough program he introduced as chancellor to support employees affected by the coronavirus. Few, though, will forget that he is prime minister only because of the economic and market turmoil unleashed by his Conservative predecessor Liz Truss.

Having been trounced by Truss in the 2022 Tory leadership election, Sunak arrived at the summit of power as the technocrat who could steady the ship after her short-lived experiment with unfunded tax cuts. He has performed that function commendably: Inflation has fallen to 2.3% from a peak of 11.1 per cent in October 2022, and a modest economic recovery is taking hold. Markets haven't repeated the ructions of the Truss mini-budget.

Fairly or not, though, voters will weigh the full 14 years of Conservative tenure. The party was already showing signs of regime decay before Truss. The administration of Boris Johnson was chaotic and sleaze-ridden, with the Partygate scandal in particular undermining trust in government. Meanwhile, public opinion has increasingly soured on Brexit, a referendum called by another former prime minister (and Sunak’s current foreign secretary), David Cameron.

To overcome this baggage would take a campaign of rare inspiration and flair. Here again, Sunak is a prisoner of the qualities that made him a competent stand-in during a time of crisis. Attempts to show a common touch have sometimes landed awkwardly, inviting ridicule. His Downing Street address showcased these shortcomings: Sunak stood unprotected in the rain, becoming gradually more soaked, while in the background a protester blared out Things Can Only Get Better, the anthem of Tony Blair’s successful 1997 campaign. The optics felt symbolic.

Sporting metaphors are hard to avoid. The election will be held on July 4, in the middle of the Euro 24 football tournament (on a day, wisely, when no matches are scheduled). Cricket is the more suggestive analogy, though. There are obvious parallels between today and the end of Tory rule in 1997, when John Major’s government was submerged in a rising tide of sleaze. “There are some times in politics when the ball just rolls in the opposite direction, and there isn’t a great deal that you can do about it,” Major, who (like Sunak) is a cricket fan, said philosophically on the morning after his defeat.

Sunak was the tail-ender sent in to chase the score with his team far behind. He has batted well, put some runs on the board and, whatever happens, will remain a historic figure, being the first Briton of Indian heritage to become prime minister. But in the end, victory is likely to prove beyond him.