Syria’s rebel leader al-Golani needs a chance

By Andreas Kluth

Lame-duck President Joe Biden and his successor, Donald Trump, urgently need a theory of mind about Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of the rebel militias that just ousted the Syrian dictator and could now liberate the country or send it deeper into hell. What does the man want? Could he deliver? And what, if anything, could the United States do to help?

Ever since the Arab Spring in 2011 and the revolt against Bashar al-Assad, the butcher and war criminal now hiding in Russia, the US has tried to get rid of Assad while worrying about “catastrophic success.” Once the dictator is gone, Washington was and is concerned, he could be replaced by somebody or something even more diabolical.

By Islamic terrorists, specifically. The US has been fighting Al Qaeda since at least Sep. 11, 2001, as well as one of its offshoots, the Islamic State, also known as ISIS. Just this weekend, American jets bombed more than 75 ISIS targets in Syria, lest the group, decimated as it is, take advantage of the transition chaos. It would be catastrophic indeed if one kind of terror — Shia Alawite in flavor and fronted by Assad — gave way to another, Sunni-hued and just as anti-American.

Hence the conundrum of al-Golani and his group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, which stands for the “Organization for the Liberation of the Levant.” His real name is Ahmed al-Sharaa; he took al-Golani — a transliteration derived from the Golan Heights, from where his family was displaced by the Israelis — as a nom de guerre. During America’s ill-conceived second war in Iraq, he went there to fight against what he saw as the infidel invaders.

That landed al-Golani in American prisons for five years (including the notorious Abu Ghraib), where he linked arms with Al Qaeda and later ISIS. Al Qaeda later sent him back to Syria to command its local branch, subsequently called Jahbat al-Nusra and just one group on the bewildering map of belligerents. HTS came out of that. Ever since and to this day, the US considers it a terrorist organization and has a $10 million bounty on Jolani’s capture.

But as ever in life, and especially in this region, that’s not the whole story. People and organizations change, and Golani and HTS have had 13 years to evolve. Years ago he formally broke with ISIS and Al Qaeda and began preaching a truer version of Islamic rule, with more moderation and tolerance not only for women but also for other sects and faiths, including Christians. Nobody is suggesting that Jolani is about to fly the rainbow flag from his tank turrets. But the way he’s been running the sliver of Syria that HTS has recently held suggests that his goals are nothing like, say, those of the Taliban when they retook Afghanistan in 2021.

In particular, Golani has made himself unusually (for Islamists) available to the American media, from CNN to PBS, to elaborate on his conversion. His message, he says, is that “we here do not pose any threat to you.” Instead, he talks up potential cooperation with the US and the wider West, to oppose common enemies in Russia and Iran and to alleviate the humanitarian crisis, even repatriating many of the Syrian refugees who have strained their host societies from Turkey to Europe. “So there is no need for you to classify people as terrorists and announce rewards for killing them,” he suggests.

Obviously, the White House, no matter who sits behind the Resolute desk, should take such overtures with ladles of salt. Is Golani sincere or cynical? And even if he means it, can he discipline the many factions that may vie for control over the Syrian rubble? The experience of Libya, say, does not bode well for dictatorship yielding to order.

The US may be able to nudge these questions toward the answers that are preferable. America played no obvious role in the shocking reversal of recent weeks, nor any helpful part in the stalemate of recent years. And Trump is right that the US should try eventually to get out of the Middle East rather than step into new swamps and forever wars. But he’s wrong when he says, in his inimitable style, that “Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”

The present moment has the potential to become a geopolitical fulcrum. It could end the suffering of millions of Syrians; further weaken Iran, Hezbollah and Russia; in time perhaps even integrate the Sunni countries into a coherent security arrangement with Israel, allowing the US to bid the region adieu. Or it could lead to more carnage, pulling in outside powers (including the US) and becoming our century’s Thirty Years War.

To make the better scenario possible, the White House must now show flexibility. Since that involves two administrations (even though American law in theory forbids an incoming president from meddling in foreign policy), Biden and Trump must coordinate and make Golani a joint offer, in private, if necessary.

They should either drop or ignore the terrorist designation and bounty on HTS and Golani, while staying ready to reimpose it if he takes a wrong turn. And they should offer help — giving money, striking enemies or even benignly standing aside — to make Jolani succeed in his stated quest of moderate Islamic nation-building. At this point, the only catastrophe would be to let the opportunity for this kind of success pass.