The makings of a counter-revolution in Nepal

The current movement for the restoration of monarchy in Nepal aims to undo the achievements of the peoples’ movements of 1990 and 2006. The first replaced absolute monarchy with constitutional monarchy, and the second abolished monarchy to establish a republic.

The people of Nepal did not mourn the ouster of King Gyanendra in 2008. Today, the disillusionment with the political parties is being channelled into a yearning for the return of the monarch.

Gyanendra has twice ascended the Nepali throne. The first was in 1950 as a child, during the regency of the powerful Rana clan of prime ministers, when his grandfather King Tribhuvan went into exile with most members of the royal family. The second time was in 2001, after the royal massacre when Crown Prince Dipendra shot his father King Birendra and his entire family. Gyanendra now senses a glimmer of acceptability in the mass response to his public appearances and the ongoing pro-monarchist protests.

The failure of the republican revolution has created the conditions for counter-revolutionary forces to gain strength. The yawning gap between the aspirations of the people and the reality of democratic rule is reflected in a growing sense that life has spun out of control.

Nepal has seen 13 governments in the 17 years since the ouster of Gyanendra in 2008. The political parties have openly displayed their greed for the loaves and fishes of office. The people have also seen their leaders being manipulated, and change of government facilitated by foreign powers.

Fear of unemployment among the youth runs deep. Nepal’s economy has failed to generate enough jobs for its large and expanding youth population. 

According to the Fourth Nepal Living Standard Survey released in June, Nepal’s unemployment rate was 12.6 per cent in 2022-2023, going up from 11.4 per cent in 2017-2018. Even official figures note that the unemployment rate for youth — those aged 15-24 years — jumped from 7.3 per cent in 1995-1996 to 22.7 per cent in 2022-2023. Unofficial figures may be higher.

The situation is further complicated by the shift in the age distribution of the population towards a young workforce with a decline in the proportion of children (0-14 years) and an increase in the15 to 59-year-olds. Youngsters who can are leaving the country in droves — even if it is to live in squalid labour camps abroad.

Compared to other Asian countries, Nepal experienced the highest percentage increase in outflow migration between 2019 and 2023. Now, even these low-paid jobs may not be available with growing immigration restrictions abroad.

The ordinary Nepali citizen believes that the political elite that emerged out of the two Jan Andolans (peoples’ movements) has cornered all benefits for itself. This perception was fuelled by a series of high-profile corruption cases that have rocked the country, involving political leaders, their relatives, and close associates.

The idea that the Hindu identity of the majority population is at risk has fed existential fears. Hindu fundamentalist forces in Nepal and India blame the adoption of a secular constitution. The influence of Indian Hindu fundamentalist groups has been expanding in Nepal. Even after it became a republic, Hindu Right-wing forces in Nepal and India, wanted to restore the monarchy, at least in a ceremonial role. Currently, there is also propaganda about the growth of Christianity in the country, although Christians constitute only about 1.8 per cent of the population.

Nepali civil society activists allege that political forces in India are facilitating the monarchist agitation. Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, the head of the Gorakhnath Temple at Gorakhpur, has been especially singled out. The erstwhile royals of Nepal are followers of Guru Gorakhnath whose religious seat is the Gorakhnath Temple. Gyanendra always meets Adityanath when he visits India. The last time he reportedly met with him was in January.

A placard with Adityanath’s photo was prominently displayed at a monarchist rally in Kathmandu. Though that is not sufficient to suggest direct interference in Nepal’s internal affairs, Adityanath supports the restoration of a Hindu Nepal. In 2015, he wrote a letter to the prime minister of Nepal urging him to declare Nepal a Hindu nation.

It is no surprise then that Kathmandu is rife with fears of a conspiracy hatched in Lucknow and Gorakhpur against Nepal’s constitutionally-elected government and its republican constitution.

The perceived Indian warmth for Gyanendra is astonishing if true. India’s relationship with the Nepalese monarchy has been rocky. India actively helped in the emergence of Nepal as a republic by facilitating the induction of the Maoists into multi-party democracy.

While India can plausibly deny a role in the current agitation, Gyanendra cannot. He has campaigned against democracy on every Democracy Day for falling short of people’s expectations.

On Democracy Day on February 18, he called for popular support, “If we [referring to himself] want to save the nation and maintain national unity, we call on all countrymen to support us [Gyanendra] for the prosperity and progress of the country”.

The Maoist-turned-royalist leader of the Movement for Restoration of Monarchy (MRM), Durga Parsai, had in fact met the former king for his blessings before the big pro-monarchy protest on March 28. After this, he was appointed ‘commander’ of the protest rally, side-lining leaders of the two factions of the royalist party — the Rastriya Prajatantrik Party and the Rastriya Prajatantrik Party (Nepal). This created a division in the royalist forces. However, it emboldened Parsai sufficiently to drive his car aggressively, breaking a police barricade on March 28 that was followed by violence, looting, and arson by royalist protesters.

Despite attempts to project the monarchy as a saviour, Gyanendra is a mediocre man — he was a businessman manufacturing cigarettes, running a tea estate and hotels before monarchy was thrust upon him in 2001 after the royal massacre — desperately trying to play the hero’s part. His expectation now seems to be that Nepal be first declared a Hindu State, hoping that this will pave the way for his reinstallation as the protector of the Hindu nation.

The Kathmandu Metropolitan City has shown him his place by imposing a fine of Nepalese Rs 793,000 (INR 4 lakh) on him for protest-related damage, including vandalism, and littering.

It will be a tragedy if Gyanendra becomes the collateral beneficiary of the systemic failure of the democratic parties. Reversion to a Hindu monarchical State will not make Nepal’s democracy more inclusive, extensive, and accountable.

Bharat Bhushan is a New Delhi-based journalist.