Trump means business, and that’s bad news for India

Crowds no longer attract Donald Trump. The adrenaline of fighting elections is gone. His focus now is business, and here, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have an edge over India.

In a dramatically changed global diplomatic environment in which the yardstick of good relations is gifting a $400 million Boeing 747-8 luxury plane and whopping $600 billion-plus investments, India will have a difficult time repeating the success of its engagement with United States President Donald Trump in his first term.

India won over Trump when he was the 45th US President because crowds paved the way to his heart. No more. It is clear from Trump’s ongoing visit to the Gulf that for the 47th president, it is only money that will do the talking. He is back to being the quintessential businessman. India cannot even remotely match what Saudi Arabia or Qatar can do to please the mercurial US commander-in-chief. Nor does India have the leverage that China has in economic terms of engagement with the US — dealings which can make or break lives from Shanghai to San Francisco.

Events surrounding the India-Pakistan decision to cease their military exchanges on May 10 further show that dealing with Trump in the next four years will be a tougher challenge for India that it was when subterfuge, bonhomie, guile, and geniality were all used in equal measure from 2017 to 2021 with success. 

When Indian interlocutors met Trump on February 6, 2020, to persuade him to visit India, Trump showed only cursory interest, according to official records of that meeting which this author has seen in Washington. Trump said he had been advised by his inner circle to visit India after his re-election in November of that year.

For the Indians involved in the process that was dicey. Their worst fears, in fact, turned out to be true because Trump lost the election, and therefore, the visit would never have taken place. The Indians were smart, and they were very well clued in on how Trump’s mind worked. So, they told him: “Mr President, everything is ready for your arrival. We will take you to Ahmedabad and there will be 140,000 Indians waiting to hear you.”

The popular caricature of Trump as a person who has a low grasp of affairs is completely misplaced, records of that meeting show. Trump asked: “Ahmedabad? My friend Modi’s home state? Is that where he has the world’s biggest cricket stadium, named after him?” The Indians nodded in assent. “How are you assuring me an audience of 140,000 people?” was Trump’s next question.

“Mr President, the Narendra Modi Stadium has a capacity of 132,000. Not only will it be full, there will be thousands of Indians who cannot get into the venue, and that overflow crowd will be on the streets outside. Trump’s next question was about how he will be taken from the airport to the stadium. “In an open vehicle,” said the Indians. “Standing, you along with our Prime Minister. Lustily cheered by thousands of people all along the route.”

On the spot, then and there, Trump told his aides that he was going to India on the date New Delhi had proposed. February 24, 2020. Trump can never get a crowd of 140,000 anywhere in the US. Trump was swept off his feet by the reception he got in Ahmedabad.

Sadly, for India, it is a tactic that will not work on Trump anymore. He will go into the sunset in 2029, and the crowds no longer attract him. The adrenaline of fighting elections is gone. His focus now is business. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar have an edge over India. 

Another country, which faces the same predicament as India is Israel. For many generations of Israelis and Americans, it was a given that there was no daylight between them. Trump bypassed Israel this week as he headed for the Gulf. A slew of measures that the White House took before Trump set out for the Gulf added insult to injury for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Only weeks ago, Netanyahu had mistaken assumptions about Trump, who announced that the Gaza Strip should be cleared of Palestinians for building a resort. Since then, Israelis have been shocked that the US signed a ceasefire agreement with Yemen’s Houthi militia explicitly excluding Israel. On May 14, Air India and nine other international airlines suspended flights to Tel Aviv after a Houthi missile landed near Israel’s biggest airport. Trump started talks with Iran for a nuclear deal without so much as informing Israel. While in Saudi Arabia, he lifted all sanctions on Syria’s Islamist government, which Israel treats as jihadist.

The unkindest cut of all was the US administration’s direct negotiations with Hamas to free US hostage Edan Alexander just as Trump was embarking on his Gulf tour. Netanyahu is now a mere spectator to events in his backyard, but he should not be underestimated.

(K P Nayar has extensively covered West Asia and reported from Washington as a foreign correspondent for 15 years.)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author's own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.