Warmer conditions, extreme weather to affect farm produce in Maharashtra: Study

Rising temperatures and extreme weather conditions in Maharashtra is likely to have a serious impact on your food plate.

Climatic changes post 2033 will seriously begin affecting parts of Maharashtra including the productivity of principal crops like sorghum, pearl millet, sugarcane, wheat, rice among others, a recent study has shown.

The study – ‘Future Climate Change Scenario over Maharashtra, Western India: Implications of the Regional Climate Model for the Understanding of Agricultural Vulnerability’ - published in a peer-reviewed journal Springer Nature suggests that almost the entire state is very likely to experience a rise in annual average temperature by 0.5 – 2.5 degree celsius up to 2050.

Maharashtra is very likely to experience considerably warmer conditions post-2033.

In particular, parts of Konkan and Madhya Maharashtra will register significant warming (by 1 – 2.5 degree Celsius).

Carried out by Assistant Professor of Geography Rahul Todmal from Vidya Pratishthan’s ASC College, Baramati, Pune district, who hails from a family of farmers, his study indicated that over the next five decades, annual mean minimum temperatures are expected to rise significantly across 80% of Maharashtra's districts.

“Agronomic studies have confirmed that the warmer climatic conditions never favour agricultural productivity. The future rise in temperature is very likely to reduce the productivity of traditional rain-fed (jowar, bajra, pulses) crops and irrigated cash crops (sugarcane, onion, maize etc.) as well. The rise in annual minimum temperature, particularly during the winter season, may adversely affect the productivity of wheat,” said Todmal, adding that this signifies that the future winter and summer seasons are very likely to become warmer and hotter, respectively.

A future increase in annual mean temperatures in the areas where the rainfall remains unchanged may aggravate the water scarcity problem, particularly in the semi-arid region of the state. At the same time, the entire state is expected to witness a significant increase in monsoon rainfall through the period 2015–2100 (by 150–210 mm) barring the Konkan coast. Parts of the Vidarbha sub-division and Western Ghats exhibit a significant increase in rainfall by 82–225 mm, the study revealed.

Todmal who spent the last two years collecting this data for the study explained that Maharashtra is likely to experience an increase in monsoon rainfall by 18 to 22%.

“It’s high time to integrate climate information in existing policies and programmes not only in agriculture or water sector but others as well such as; health, forests, urban and rural infrastructure, disaster management etc. to ensure that adverse impacts of climate change can be minimized,” Naman Gupta, former Climate Change Advisor to Government of Maharashtra.

“Under the circumstances presented by the study, temperature variations may marginally affect the productivity of these principle crops like sugarcane, rice, sorghum and millet. However, it may have some major effect on wheat productivity. However, if the frequency and intensity of rainfall increases then more flooding problems may be a cause for concern,” added A N Ganeshamurthy, agriculture expert and Emeritus Scientist, Indian Council of Agriculture Research (ICAR)-Indian Institute Horticultural Research (IIHR), Bengaluru.