How India can reach WTC Final: Win at SCG and hope for Sri Lankan series victory or draw against Australia

Melbourne: India may have lost the crucial Boxing Day contest by 184 runs, but all is not lost as far as their chances of qualifying for the World Test Championship (WTC) Final are concerned.

To qualify for the final, India must win the last Test of the series against Australia at Sydney and then hope for a positive result for Sri Lanka (or a 0-0 draw) when Australia tour the island national early next year.

Post the loss, India's point percentage (PCT) has dropped to 52.78 from 55.89. Australia, on the other hand boosted their PCT as they now have 61.46.

South Africa have already qualified for the WTC final after beating Pakistan in the first Test by two wickets on Sunday.

If India manages to win in Sydney, they will have 55.26 PCT and Australia will have 54.26. A win out of two Tests against Sri Lanka then would be enough for Australia to go past India's PCT and join the Proteas in the final.

India began the 2024/25 season in a rampant fashion, securing a confident 2-0 win over Bangladesh at home.

The script that followed was, however, not according to their plans. The side suffered an unprecedented historic loss to New Zealand at home, before embarking on a challenging tour of Australia.

Under stand-in skipper Jasprit Bumrah, the Men in Blue rekindled their hopes for a third straight appearance in the WTC Final, with a win in the opening Test in Perth.

However, the side has since gone on to lose two games in Australia, and their WTC chances have taken a significant hit.

But Australia's compelling win in the final session here has improved their chances of a World Test Championship 2025 final appearance, with the side now just one more Test win away from making it to Lord's next year.

Earlier in Centurion's Boxing Day Test, Kagiso Rabada and Marco Jansen's stunning partnership took South Africa to a thrilling two-wicket win over Pakistan in the first Test, confirming their spot at next June's final.

While Australia are out in front as claimants to the second spot, India are still in with a chance. Sri Lanka too are alive, but both will need a string of favourable results to keep their hopes alive.