India adopt high-risk-high-reward approach in CT squad selection, will it pay?

Bengaluru: It aligns with head coach Gautam Gambhir's high-risk-high-reward approach but can India's Champions Trophy squad, having lost its game-changing pace talisman Jasprit Bumrah to injury, deliver the goods at the ODI showpiece? The answer to that question is not particularly straightforward given the audacious calls taken to decide the final 15.

The selection risks start with the drafting in of five spinners. The Dubai-bound flight will feature Ravindra Jadeja, Axar Patel, Washington Sundar, Kuldeep Yadav and Varun Chakravarthy in a spin-heavy bowling attack.

Harshit Rana has replaced Bumrah with the more experienced Mohammed Siraj relegated to the group of non-travelling reserves alongside young batter Yashasvi Jaiswal and all-rounder Shivam Dube.

India's matches will be held in Dubai, a venue where pacers have found more success traditionally in the 50-over format.

Available data shows that the Dubai International Cricket Stadium, where India will play all their matches, has hosted 58 ODIs since 2009, and pacers have taken 466 wickets here at an average of 28.6 and economy of 4.8.

The spinners have combined to take 334 wickets till now at the DICS, and their average goes up to 30 but with a slightly better economy of 4.2 "The Dubai surface has a bit more carry than say in Sharjah, and the pacers here have found some good success and that's why Pakistan has picked more pacers in their squad, though they are supposed to play only a couple of matches here," a former national selector told PTI.

"If you use the new ball well, then you can have a good purchase there. I am not faulting the selection of Varun. He is in good form, but I would have liked to see one more experienced pacer in that side, someone like Siraj," he added.

Spinners' role in Dubai

From outside, having five spinners looks like an over-estimation of the conditions. But the management took a chance with Chakravarthy because of his excellent recent form.

Chakravarthy has been trusted to deliver in a multi-nation tournament, after his failure to do so in the T20 World Cup 2021 at the same venue.

What might have tilted the scales in his favour is the fact that none of India's league stage opposition in the Champions Trophy -- Bangladesh, Pakistan and New Zealand -- have played him before.

The way he managed to trouble England in the ongoing home series on account of being an unknown entity for the visitors also worked to his advantage.

But on the flip side, it leaves Kuldeep Yadav in peril. With Jadeja and Axar being the first-choice spinners considering their batting prowess, the fight for the third spinner's slot will be between Kuldeep and Chakravarthy.

If India follows the template of the recent second ODI against England at Cuttack, Chakravarthy can pip the left-arm wrist spinner, at least in the initial stages of the Champions Trophy.

Why Siraj was overlooked

Another selection paradox is placing Rana ahead of Siraj as Bumrah's replacement for a tournament in which teams will have to do the tight-rope walk of three matches in the league phase.

Conventional thinking says that experience more than explosiveness matters in such events, but the wise men went ahead with Rana.

According to skipper Rohit Sharma, ineffectiveness with the old ball led to Siraj's omission from the marquee event.

On that count, Rana has already given them two examples of his ability to strike when the white ball loses its lacquer.

In his T20I debut, Rana was the sixth bowler, a much-debated concussion substitute for Shivam Dube, and walked away with game-changing figures of 3 for 33.

In ODIs, Rana went for a few runs, but showed the gumption to bowl across three spells in three various passages of the match.

The risk that the management has taken is to trust Rana to grow in his role quickly and deliver in a high-pressure tournament as and when he is called for.

Why was Jaiswal dropped

A common line of thinking can be that the selectors wanted a bowler with some mystery element about him in the squad once Bumrah was ruled out with a lower back injury.

So, they picked an in-form Chakravarthy. Fair call. But why select him in place of Jaiswal, an opener? Should they have replaced a spinner for him? Perhaps Washington Sundar could have been the one to be omitted to accommodate Chakravarthy.

However, in one shot, the selectors have also avoided the opening conundrum that haunted them in the first ODI against England at Nagpur.

It was tough to accommodate Jaiswal and Shreyas Iyer in the same eleven but an injury to Virat Kohli gave them a temporary relief.

Once Kohli came back, Jaiswal missed out in the second match, and the big wigs did not want an encore in Dubai.

India is now placing confidence in Rohit, who made a hundred at Cuttack, and Shubman Gill, who scored two fifties in as many ODIs against England, to deliver at the top consistently in the Champions Trophy.

They are hoping that Kohli will find a way to return to his imperious scoring ways and will not put pressure on the rest of the middle-order.

The management has taken the risk of believing that the top five will be in fine fettle throughout the tournament.

They have also risked the traditionally iffy fitness of Hardik Pandya and his ability to plug the gap as the third seamer behind Mohammed Shami and Arshdeep Singh or Harshit Rana.

Looking at the squad, India seem to have taken one risk too many. Will they get the desired high reward? Or will they falter? For now, it's the charming uncertainty of a risk-ridden path.