Ubisoft faces make-or-break moment with 'Assassin's Creed Shadows'

Ubisoft is banking on the success of 'Assassin's Creed Shadows' to fight its way out of financial troubles as the French videogame publisher grapples with falling revenue, a sinking stock price and takeover speculation.

The title, which will be launched on Thursday (March 20), marks a return to the company's best-selling franchise after a string of high-profile flops including 'Avatar: Frontiers of Pandora' and 'Star Wars Outlaws' cast doubts on its strategy of licensing new intellectual property to create games.

Ubisoft's stock took a beating last year, falling more than 40 per cent last year and drawing interest from an activist investor. The company's founding Guillemot family, its largest shareholder, has also been exploring talks with Tencent and other investors on a buyout deal that would let them preserve control.

Ubisoft declined to comment on speculation of selling the company's intellectual property.

The launch of the latest game, however, has been marred by criticism on social media including from Elon Musk over its diverse set of characters, as backlash against diversity efforts gains momentum in the US following President Donald Trump's election.

"The release of Assassin's Creed Shadows is a bit of an existential moment for Ubisoft," said Joost Van Dreunen, a lecturer at NYU's Stern School of Business.

"If it does really well, it could go a long way toward repairing its financial position."

After two delays and multiple leaks, the newest entry in the best-selling franchise transports players to feudal Japan, a fan-favorite setting for gamers. It features two protagonists: Naoe, a stealthy female assassin, and Yasuke, a heavily armored African samurai inspired by the real-life eponymous figure.

Ubisoft has refined the series' core mechanics of parkour and stealth to enhance the dual-character system. "They're not trying to reinvent the wheel, but they really hope that what they tried with the previous games still works right now," said Jordan Van Andel, who has played the game and whose YouTube channel JorRaptor has over 1 million subscribers.

Van Andel, whose content has in the past been sponsored by Ubisoft, said the game offered a more polished experience than recent titles in the franchise but its story was disappointing.

He added that the game needs to attract a player base beyond core fans to match the financial success of "Assassin's Creed Valhalla," the last big release in the series that came out in 2020 and the first game in the franchise to make over $1 billion in revenue.

Diversity Conundrum

Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter believes the current U.S. political climate could also pose challenges to the game, saying that Trump "has made it okay to be anti-DEI."

Since its reveal more than two years ago, 'Assassin's Creed Shadows' has faced criticism from groups over its creative choices such as having a black samurai and a female assassin.

"We could argue that the people that voted for him (Trump)... they would have hated the game anyway, but I think that they would have been less vocal," Pachter said.

North America accounted for over 53% of Ubisoft's total videogame bookings in its fiscal year 2024, as many of the company's franchises such as 'Far Cry' have a broad appeal to the American audience.

Games with diverse characters have seen strong success in the past such as Sony's 'Horizon', which features a female protagonist and is one of the company's most successful franchises.

Van Dreunen believes the controversy could work in Ubisoft's favor. "It's free press this only makes the game more interesting to a lot of players, I'm sure," he said.