BJP's caste pitch outdoing Mandal parties

UP polls will test BJP's ability to pursue aggressive OBC-Dalit politics while retaining the core upper-caste support base

Politicians have an innate ability to engage the masses. The more successful ones can also change the goalposts at short notice. Desiderata for both include sophisticated skills in man-management and mass communication. A misstep here or a miscalculation there can derail even the most immaculately laid out plans.

For instance, in the 2009 Assembly polls for the undivided Andhra Pradesh, the then chief minister YS Rajasekhara Reddy, or YSR, decided to knit his campaign around the government's pro-poor welfare schemes. The campaign worked well in the first phase of the elections for seats now part of a separate Telangana state. In the second phase of canvassing for the coastal Andhra and Rayalaseema region, Reddy effortlessly shifted gears to rake up sentiments against the division of the state. The Congress won that election on both sides of the divide.

But not everyone can execute a turnaround with a finesse of a battle-hardened YSR. Every turn in the political-turnstile need not engender a favourable outcome. Even the best exponents of the trade calibrate their moves to the last millimetre to detect any structural flaws. Prognosis and theories are often tested well in advance.

The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)'s recent overt and loud Mandal outreach ahead of the crucial Assembly polls in 2022 thus calls for closer scrutiny. It is a tad more than the hot air balloons floated by political outfits at regular intervals for project assessment and feedback. On the face of it, it appears to be part of the build-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.

That the BJP has successfully moulded the 1989 Mandal-Kamandal rupture in Indian politics to its advantage is a known fact. Competitive inter-caste politics within the OBC and Dalit ranks is the glue that has helped BJP bind disparate social groups under a larger canopy of Hindu-nationalism and also to paper over cracks between the core upper caste base and other deprived sections.

The first phase of the BJP's Mandal project entailed projecting leaders from backward communities at the state level. A parallel series of upper caste leadership was lined up at the Centre to achieve a social balance at the top.

So for every Kalyan Singh in Uttar Pradesh, there was one Atal Bihari Vajpayee or Rajnath Singh at the Centre; for a Gopinath Munde in Mumbai, there was one Pramod Mahajan in Delhi. For every BS Yediyurappa in Karnataka, there was an Ananth Kumar in the national team; for every Sushil Modi in Patna, there was one Kailashpati Mishra in Delhi. For every Uma Bharti or Shivraj Singh Chouhan in Madhya Pradesh, there was one Sunderlal Patwa or Kailash Joshi in the national politics. And for every Keshubhai Patel and Narendra Modi in Gujarat, there was one LK Advani on the national horizon.

The BJP has, over the years, realised that the sheer numerical strength of the intermediary castes in India makes for a powerful building block in any power structure. The BJP nurtured regional leaders from the intermediary castes. The returns over the years were encouraging. On the other hand, the central leadership remained dominated by the upper castes, especially the Brahmins. A cursory reading of the party's powerful parliamentary board when Nitin Gadkari was the party president ten years back is a point in the case. A subtle yet clear shift in the power dynamics within the BJP was triggered by Modi's rise in Gujarat politics and, thereafter, his projection at the national level.

In 2014 and after that, the BJP has not shied away from using the caste card wherever necessary. It found the confidence to woo backwards and Dalits without rubbing the political sensitivity of the core upper caste followers. The overarching umbrella of Hindu nationalism has come in handy to strike this delicate balance.

The BJP's reluctance to enter the caste quagmire during its formative years can be gauged because it set up its first OBC front or morcha after winning the 2014 polls. SP Singh Baghel, a political turncoat with a stint in the Samajwadi Party (SP) and Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), was made its first president. Baghel won his Lok Sabha elections from Agra in 2019 and was recently inducted into the union council of ministers in the recent expansion by the Modi government.

The BJP is now in the throes of taking the next ginger step towards making further inroads into the Mandal space. The party has sought to underscore its caste credentials in the recent expansion of the union council of ministers. Like Baghel, a majority of the new entrants are from backward and Dalit communities.

In the last month, many administrative and political measures have been taken to reiterate the message. Twenty-seven per cent OBC reservations in the national medical entrance test NEET in AIQ, or All India Quota seats, has been cleared by the union cabinet. In Karnataka, the BJP has sought to replace Yediyurappa with a leader from the same intermediary castes. In Maharashtra, the party is working overtime to contain damage to its OBC vote-bank after the rebellion by caste leaders like Eknath Khadse. In Telangana, the BJP attempts to mobilise backward communities to stitch an electoral combination to challenge the Telangana Rashtra Samithi.

As it evolves to accommodate disparate ethnic and social identities, the BJP looks increasingly surefooted. This is a remarkable transformation considering the party not long back was a little edgy in facing the likes of Lalu Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav on the caste pitch. The curator is now being asked to prepare the ground accordingly.

Post demonetisation, post-GST, post-pandemic, the BJP looks a little diffident to approach the elections on economic issues. It has decided to device its version of social justice tempered to keep the upper castes in good humour. A 27-per cent reservations in NEET for OBCs is juxtaposed with a 10-per cent quota for the Economically Weaker Sections for the same purpose.

The 2022 UP Assembly polls will put this BJP's version of social justice to a good test. The outcome will demonstrate the party's ability to pursue aggressive backwards-Dalit politics while retaining the core upper-caste support base.

Both the SP and BSP can sense an opening in all this churning. In wooing the Brahmins, the opposition in UP is preparing to engage the ruling party on fronts the BJP thought were already secured. Likewise, in Bihar, its ally Nitish Kumar pushes back any encroachments on his territory by pressing for a caste census.

(The writer is a journalist)

Disclaimer: The views expressed above are the author’s own. They do not necessarily reflect the views of DH.