Thinking about the next war

The future of conflict

Military strategists have always been caught short in their predictions on the nature of warfare, especially when disruptive technologies have, down the ages, changed its course without any forewarning. One only has to see the impact of gunpowder, firearms, the railway, telegraph, aeroplane, and now nuclear weapons, digital networks and space to understand the magnitude of the task.

However, the demands of national security leave little choice but to crystal gaze so that planners can optimise their nation’s statecraft even if their predictions fall short.

Contrary to the perception that the probability of conflict was receding, the reality has been quite the opposite. Military burdens are growing, demanding newer proficiencies -- in kinetic combat, in emerging domains, in precision, intelligence, military IoT (Internet of Things), algorithmic warfare, multi-domain operations, even as legacy challenges, such as unsettled borders and cross-border terrorism, remain.

A dynamic congruence

A realistic evaluation of military futures will largely depend upon two critical factors -- the likely trends and trajectories of geopolitical contestations, and estimation of critical breakthrough technologies.

After a brief hiatus post-Cold War, geopolitics is well and truly back and has got particularly accentuated in the post-pandemic world. Also, at no other time in human history have technologies had such a game-changing impact on warfighting as we are witnessing now. These two factors can be intersected to arrive at a grounded projection for the future.

Advances in blockchain technology will transfer the advantage in cyber warfare from offence to defence and in quantum computing, there are a host of applications; 3D/4D printing, cyber blockchain, Augmented Reality/Virtual Real, autonomous systems, directed energy platforms, rail guns and hypersonic missiles all are no longer confined to the realm of science fiction.

Geopolitical Contestations

The foremost contest in the years to come will be between the US and China in terms of preserving, circumscribing or expanding their respective rights to explore and exploit the globe.

Such a titanic contest will not be without its subtexts in diplomacy, trade and economy in terms of access to microchips, rare earth, other minerals, foodstuffs and their flows, and partnerships and countervailing coalitions. This will incite, and at times exacerbate, similar contests in the regional context too -- Iran-Saudi Arabia, Iran-Israel, China-Japan and closer home, India-China are prime examples.

Political warfare will also grow in salience, which is after all the logical application of Clausewitzian doctrine, albeit applied in times of peace, employing comprehensive national power – the economy, soft power, trade, public diplomacy, deep fakes and innovative imaging ideas, etc. We see it being waged relentlessly in Russia and Iran, where crippling sanctions are devastating those economies and quality of life.

In the Asian context, the completion gets intense where two consequential powers – the world’s No 1 and No 3 economies in purchasing power terms -- are growing in close proximity, in the absence of historical buffers. Of course, a modus vivendi between the two can be sought and is desired, but there is also a growing risk of their geostrategic spaces intersecting, if not clashing.

The geostrategic spaces between China and India will inevitably intersect due to the unsettled nature of our borders, the salience of ‘unification of territories’ in the Chinese worldview, and the inexorable logic of balance of power politics -- allowing for only one regional hegemon and the need to diminish the closest peer competitor.

China’s comprehensive strategic makeover has many shades and layers. India now has a superpower on its northern borders whose economic growth and military power have been matched by the scale and depth of its ambitions. China’s military modernisation has been both perspicacious and deep, and it is in the process of the transition from industrial-era warfighting to digital-era sophistication and capacities.

Civil-Military Fusion

Nations like India that continue to abide by the age-old concept of civil-military relations –the two operating in their distinct silos -- will tend to trail in the strategic military competition.

In China, the civil and military domains have fused completely to complement each other’s growth. There are simply no silos. The PLA-led Huawei’s push towards 5G is a prominent example. PLA teams have been embedded in mega AI projects in major Chinese cities. (facial recognition, autonomous cars). The experiences so gained translate naturally into military applications in PLA combat outfits.

Some years ago, the Chinese PLA identified and sponsored the education of a talented Chinese scientist, Jian Wei Pan, in Austria’s Heidelburg University, under the mentorship of Prof Anton Zellinger, an acknowledged expert in Quantum Science. In natural consequence, Jain Wei Pan, on his return, designed China’s and the world’s first Quantum Satellite and is now working on the Quantum Radar.

In the not-too-distant future, India may be faced with the real prospect of a ‘strategic squeeze’. The PLA Navy is already our maritime neighbour in the Indian Ocean Region, with a potent Eastern Maritime Flank, as also a fast-developing Western Maritime Flank (Gwadar and Djibouti).

Facing up to the future

Apart from the technologies, India will have to usher in a novel culture, an enabling ecosystem, and an agile bureaucracy to run it. China publicly acknowledges that the long-drawn processes of democracies provide its own autocratic system with an edge in the global competition for supremacy.

It is not that India is not acting; a considerable amount of work is on in professional military education, disruptive technologies, talent management, massive outreach to academia and start-ups. There is a greater connect between foreign and defence policies. We do need, however, to enhance the rapidity and scale of our responses. The creation of the Chief of Defence Staff and the Department of Military Affairs is a beginning.

In our long-term strategising, we will also need to answer some critical questions. Will strategic autonomy suffice, or do we need to build greater military heft into various partnerships/countervailing coalitions? What should be the right balance between the maritime and continental emphasis in our force structuring?

We also need to usher in unfettered Civil-Military fusion. To enable cross-pollination of the best talents, we need the finest Indian minds by moving beyond government spaces and the traditional areas of recruitment, by creating an agile bureaucracy and a defence ecosystem of innovation and enterprise.

(The writer is Chief Information Officer, Synergia Foundation, Bengaluru)