Why recent bypoll results gave mixed signals

By-elections are usually no indicators of a general political mood or trend in the country or a state. They are straws in the local wind which may not blow wide. When a number of by-elections are held, it is difficult to connect the dots and arrive at a general graph of popular opinion. But at times, they serve as signs of changes which may pass or endure. Usually, incumbent governments have an advantage in by-elections, and if the seats had been held by the ruling party, it is an additional advantage. Even with these caveats, the results of the by-elections held in different states last week have some messages for parties in the states where they were held. It will be no surprise if at least a couple of the results are cited at the national level to make a political point or two.

The results of the seven Assembly by-elections were generally along expected lines. The ruling parties have generally asserted themselves and won the seats. That was the case in Andhra Pradesh, Jharkhand and Delhi, where the YSR Congress, the Congress and the AAP registered easy victories. In Tripura, the incumbent BJP won three of the four seats, including one in which the new chief minister Manik Saha had contested. The other seat went to the Congress, which would consider the victory especially sweet as it had almost been wiped out from the state. It should also be noted that the Trinamool Congress failed to make any impact in the state, losing its security deposit in the seats where it contested, though it has in the last few months spent a lot of energy in the state.

The surprises came from the three parliamentary seats in UP and Punjab. In UP, the BJP trounced the Samajwadi Party (SP) in its pocket boroughs of Azamgarh and Rampur, and in Sangrur, the AAP was defeated by Simranjit Singh Mann of the Akali Dal (Amritsar). Azamgarh was represented by SP chief Akhilesh Yadav, and his father Mulayam Singh Yadav before him. Rampur had been held by the party’s top leader Azam Khan. The SP lost the seats which it used to win by lakhs of votes. Blaming the BSP may not be enough, and the party will have to do some serious examination of the problems within and the likely changes in its external environment. The loss of chief minister Bhagwant Mann’s seat in the party’s stronghold is a blow to the AAP which only recently won a huge victory in Punjab. That should serve as a wake-up call to the party and its government.