Pakistan in penury, terror ebbs, hope swells in Jammu & Kashmir

The police in Islamabad on March 19 last accused Pakistan’s former prime minister, Imran Khan, of terrorism. They blamed him and the other leaders of his party of inciting his supporters to launch violent attacks on the security personnel at the judicial complex in Islamabad the previous day. For common Pakistanis, it was however just another day of making ends meet, living through unending power-cuts, and scarcity of food and fuel.

But, just a little over 300 kilometres away, Manoj Sinha, the lieutenant governor of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), on the same day laid the foundation stone of a mall that the Emaar Group of Dubai would build in Srinagar – the capital of one of the newest union territories of India. The Emaar Group will invest Rs 494 crores ($60 million) for the project. This is going to be the first Foreign Direct Investment in J&K, which for decades remained under the shadow of terror that Pakistan exported to India.

Sinha said that the project would infuse confidence in foreign investors and would boost the region’s economy. “This is a one million square feet mall with 500 shops and will generate around 7,000 to 8,000 jobs,” Amit Jain, the CEO of the Emaar Group, said after the ground-breaking ceremony for the “Mall of Srinagar.”

Read | NGO terror-funding case: NIA arrests Khuram Parvez’s associate in Srinagar

A record 2.5 million tourists visited Kashmir last year. The valley is expecting another bumper season this year. The hotels, houseboats, shikaras and restaurants are full in Kashmir and, with Asia’s largest Tulip garden thrown open earlier this week, it’s now a riot of colours in Srinagar.

There has been a significant decline in violence too. Only seven militants have been killed from January 1 to March 21 against 40 ultras in the same period last year. Eight civilians and an army man have been killed by the militants so far this year.

The militancy is on the wane in J&K, not only because of diminishing support from crisis-ridden Pakistan, but also due to loss of appeal among youth. Only about 28 local militants are now active, according to the J&K police. The Hizb-ul-Mujahideen, which was once the numerically largest militant group in the valley with thousands of cadres, has almost disappeared.

All these may indicate that the Centre’s August 5, 2019 decision to revoke the erstwhile state’s autonomy under Article 370 of the Constitution has finally started delivering results. But political and security analysts believe it may be premature to reach any conclusion.

Pakistan’s military leadership continues to remain obsessed over Kashmir, but the deepening economic and political crises and spurt of terror attacks in their own territory has forced them to stop meddling in Kashmir too much.

Ahmed Ali Fayyaz, a veteran journalist and political observer, says currently militancy and separatism in Kashmir are back to the level of 2013-14 – the lowest for the last 33 years.

“(But) if the situation in J&K changes to the old order of competitive separatism and the politicians, who have been sworn supporters and saviours of militants and separatists, return to power in any form, militancy will definitely get a new lease of life slowly,” he tells DH.

He says that militancy in Kashmir or Punjab were the babies of Pakistan’s army. “It will continue as long as the army holds sway in Pakistan. It (militancy) has dimmed quantitatively in Kashmir, mainly due to pressure from the FATF (Financial Action Task Force) on Islamabad to stop flow of fund to terror organisations and New Delhi’s strike on political and intellectual support structure of militancy and separatism,” Fayyaz adds.

Read | Skyrocketing airfares to Kashmir worry tourism players

Sanjay Sapru, a political analyst, says that Pakistan has just shelved its ‘mission Kashmir’ for some time.

“(But) you have to see how long Pakistan will remain silent on Kashmir. New Delhi shouldn’t take the current lull in Kashmir as a final peace. Every insurgency has a peak and low time,” Sapru, who has written extensively on the Kashmir situation, adds.

“It is the right time for India to bargain on Kashmir with Pakistan on its own terms and settle it once for all. Pakistan army is currently concentrating on intensifying military operations against Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and are in a confrontation mode with Taliban ruled Afghanistan over the festering Durand Line issue. For the time being the situation in Kashmir will remain stable,” he said.