Germany revises upward 2020 GDP forecast, sees weaker rebound in 2021

Germany expects the economic devastation caused by the Covid-19 pandemic to be less severe than originally feared this year, but it now sees a weaker rebound for Europe's largest economy next year, two sources told Reuters on Tuesday.

The government revised upward its economic forecast for 2020 to a decline of 5.8% from a previously expected slump of 6.3%, said two people with knowledge of the figures.

Still, this would be the biggest plunge since the end of World War Two. During the world financial crisis, the German economy contracted by 5.7%.

For 2021, the government revised downward its growth forecast to an expansion of 4.4% from its previous estimate of 5.2%, said the two people who both spoke on condition of anonymity.

This means the German economy will not reach its pre-pandemic level before 2022.

An economy ministry spokesman declined to comment.

Economy Minister Peter Altmaier will present the updated outlook later on Tuesday (0900 GMT) after the economy suffered its worst recession on record in the first half of the year.

The updated GDP forecast will form the basis of tax revenue estimates, which the finance ministry is expected to update next week, and with them the 2021 budget, which Finance Minister Olaf Scholz is expected to present later this month.