OPEC sees India's oil demand rising 3.4% in 2025, double the pace of China

New Delhi: India's oil demand is expected to grow at the fastest pace among major economies and double the rate of rise in China in 2025 and 2026, oil cartel OPEC said in its latest global outlook.

India's oil demand is projected to rise from 5.55 million barrels a day in 2024 to 5.74 million bpd in 2025, up 3.39 per cent, helped by rising energy needs in the world's fastest growing economy.

This is projected to further rise to 5.99 million bpd in 2026, growing at 4.28 per cent.

The demand growth is higher than 1.5 per cent expansion projected in China's oil demand in 2025 and 1.25 per cent in 2026.

But in absolute terms, the US will continue to be the biggest oil consumer with a demand of 20.5 million bpd in 2025, followed by China (16.90 million bpd in 2025 and 17.12 million bpd in 2026). India is the third largest consumer.

The US is likely to see 0.09 per cent growth in 2025 and 0.6 per cent in 2026.

Despite slower growth, OPEC expects global oil demand to rise by 1.3 million bpd in both 2025 and 2026, unchanged from its previous forecast.

"Looking ahead, India's economy continued to expand at the beginning of the year. The current momentum of robust economic growth is expected to continue, driven by ongoing consumer spending, investment and government support for key sectors," the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report said.

While the most recently introduced US tariffs may have an impact on Indian GDP growth, some of these impacts are expected to be compensated for by fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, it said, adding forward-looking indicators point towards strong economic dynamics.

"Accordingly, the outlook for the near term provides further positive signals for steady oil demand in India. Diesel is projected to continue to be the main driver of demand growth," the report said.

With massive road expansion underway, bitumen demand is seen growing strong.

"Additionally, robust growth in transport fuels, with strong expectations for manufacturing and growth in petrochemical feedstock requirements, is expected to support overall oil demand growth," the report said. "Overall, in 2025, oil product demand in India is expected to grow by 188,000 bpd, year-on-year, to average 5.7 million bpd."

In 2026, ongoing trade-related negotiations are expected to reduce currently announced tariffs, limiting the impact.

"India's economy is expected to continue expanding amid strong manufacturing and service sector activities, supported by a continuation of current government support in key sectors amid inflation easing. Accordingly, oil demand is projected to grow by 246,000 bpd, y-o-y, to average 6.0 million bpd, supported by robust economic growth amid healthy transportation and manufacturing activities," it added.

India is more than 85 per cent dependent on imports to meet its needs of crude oil, which is turned into fuels like petrol and diesel in refineries.

OPEC report said India's crude imports set a record high of 5.4 million bpd in March, following a month-on-month increase of over 5 per cent.

Product imports rose by 2 per cent, m-o-m, amid higher inflows of LPG. Product exports slipped by almost 3 per cent, m-o-m, but remained at strong levels, as declines in naphtha and gasoline were offset by increased outflows of diesel and fuel oil.

"In terms of crude imports by source, Kpler data shows Russia had a 36 per cent share of India's total crude imports in March, up from 31 per cent in the previous month. Iraq was second with 17 per cent, followed by Saudi Arabia with 11 per cent," it said.