Trade gap forecast to widen in fiscal 2012

Estimated at $150 billion

The trend of first two months of financial year 2011-12 shows that negative balance of trade is averaging US$12 billion a month. “If you average it to US$12 billion, you are straight away looking at US$125-150 billion,” according to Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar.

In April-May, the trade gap was US$ 23.9 billion. In 2009-10, the monthly trade deficit ranged between USD 7.5 billion and US$11 billion with the annual aggregate of US$108.2 billion. While in April this fiscal the deficit was US$8.9 billion, the big surge came last month with US$15 billion, which was the highest in the last few years.

Khullar said thanks to easing of crude oil prices in the last few months, the bill for oil imports has grown about 12.9 per cent to US$20.3 billion during April-May. “It (increasing import) is a consumption demand and not investment (led),” he said.