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India's Nov WPI seen easing to 7.48 pct

Last Updated 14 December 2010, 03:06 IST

Forecasts from 26 economists ranged from 7.10 percent to 8.50 percent.

FACTORS TO WATCH:

* India's food price index rose 8.69 percent, while the fuel price index climbed 9.99 percent in the year to Nov. 27, government data on Thursday showed.

* Food makes up a little over 14 percent of the wholesale price index, while fuel contributes about 15 percent, and a quickening or softening in these components will put pressure on the headline figure in either direction.

* The central bank has said inflationary expectations remain at elevated levels, and a deputy governor at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Thursday global commodity prices would make inflation management difficult.

* The RBI, which raised interest rates for the sixth time this year on Nov. 2 in an effort to tame stubborn inflation and squeeze it to its target of 5.5 percent by March, had said there was little chance of a further rate increase in the near term.

* The central bank lifted the repo rate , at which it lends to banks, to 6.25 percent and raised the reverse repo rate , at which it absorbs excess cash, to 5.25 percent, increasing key lending and borrowing rates by a total of 150 basis points and 200 basis points since mid-March.

* The RBI's next policy review is on Dec 16. The bank is expected to raise rates once more in the fiscal year to March 2011 by 25 basis points, a poll conducted immediately after the Nov. 2 policy had shown.

* India's industrial output in October grew at its fastest clip in three months to 10.8 percent from a year earlier, well above the median forecast of 8.5 percent in a Reuters poll and exceeded September's 4.4 percent growth, government data on Friday showed.

MARKET IMPACT

* Traders say the bond and the overnight indexed swaps (OIS) markets have priced in November inflation at around 7.5 percent levels.

* A higher-than-expected reading could send the benchmark 10-year bond yield and swap rates across tenors up by 3-5 basis points, traders say.

* A lower-than-forecast figure would help calm nerves about the possibility of a rate hike happening soon and likely ease bond yields and swaps by 3-4 basis points, they added.

* However, most traders said their positions were fairly light ahead of the central bank's mid-quarter policy review on Thursday, thus limiting any sharp reaction in the market.

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(Published 14 December 2010, 03:06 IST)

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