Is the 'Maya Jaal' on the wane in UP?

With the polling for half of the Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh over, there appears to be a widespread belief among the political analysts that the BSP will not be able to repeat its 2007 Assembly performance while the national parties may have been on a comeback trail in this politically crucial state.

Although it is always dangerous to make a prediction regarding the outcome of elections in a state where caste plays a crucial role in the victory of a candidate, a large section of the media as well as the political scientists and the analysts are of the opinion that the state is witnessing a churning of sorts.

“While the BSP will find it extremely difficult to repeat its 2007 assembly performance, the SP is likely to lose heavily,” the analysts say.

Any major loss to the two powerful regional outfits would certainly result in a gain for the two national parties — the BJP and the Congress, they point out.

Even the internal assessment of the major political parties point to a similar picture. BSP insiders predict that it could win about 30 plus seats, which is certainly far below its target of 50-odd seats. The mood in the SP camp is no different. Although for the record, the SP leaders claim that their tally would increase,  off the record they concede that the party was in for some shock.

On the contrary, both the BJP and the Congress camps are upbeat. “We are well placed in at least 20 seats,” claims the UP Congress spokesman Subodh Srivastava. Similar sentiments were expressed by the BJP leaders.

Political analysts attribute the decline in the BSP’s prospects to more than one factor. “The BSP had caught the attention of the people with its zero tolerance on the crime front. People had voted for Mayawati as they felt she would come hard at the criminal elements, which were so blatantly nurtured by the SP regime,” say Prof Ramesh Dixit, a political analyst.

“Unfortunately Mayawati, instead of putting the criminals behind bars, offered them party nominations. Mukhtar Ansari, Dhananjai Singh, Afzal Ansari, D P Yadav among them got BSP tickets,”, he said.

Mayawati also openly showered praise on these tainted politicians and even termed them as ‘saviours’ of the poor sending a message that she too had buckled under their pressure. “Now people find that there is virtually no difference between Mayawati and Mulayam,” Prof Dixit says.

Besides, Mayawati’s much touted social engineering (Dalit-Brahmin combination), which saw her party catapulted to power after the 2007 assembly polls, also lay in tatters with several prominent Brahmin leaders either leaving the party or being  shown the door.
Prof Dixit says that the so called ‘social engineering’ was in fact a creation of the media. “It never existed...the Brahmins voted for the BSP only where the party had fielded Brahmin candidates,” he asserted. He attributes the BSP win to the large Dalit turnout in 2007 assembly polls owing to the stern steps taken by the Election Commission.

According to Verma, the SP also stands to lose heavily owing due to the shift of its muslim vote bank following Kalyan Singh’s entry into the party. “Mulayam’s falure to stitch an alliance with the Congress and his joining hands with Kalyan will cost him dear,” Verma opines.

S P Pandey, a social scientist with the Lucknow based G B Pant Institute of Rural Development, says that national parties like BJP and Congress are on a comeback trail in UP.

“At many places this time, the people have ignored caste equations and voted for development...one should not be surprised if the BJP and the Congress increase their respective tallies in the 2009 polls in UP,” he asserts.