Implications of poll results in State

The three parties in the State exude confidence on the mandate of the people

The BJP is hopeful of getting at least 20 to 21 seats, while the Congress says it will garner 16 seats as there is anti-BJP wave in the State.

Earlier, the JD(S) used to claim that it would win at least 13 seats. But as the results day approached, the leaders of the JD(S) desisted from quoting any numbers. Yet, they say the results will throw a surprise on their Opposition parties.

What implications will the results of the 28 constituencies have on the three parties?

For the BJP

* CM’s position:

Yeddyurappa will move closer to the central party leadership if he keeps his promise that he will send more than 20 MPs from the State to help Advani becoming the prime minister.

The party had bagged 18 seats in 2004. If it improves performance this time, then Yeddyurappa’s position as CM will be more secure. If the scoring just touches the double digits, then he will have to tread a cautious path while handling his partymen.

* Revamp in State government on the cards?

Depending on the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls, Yeddyurappa is likely to go in for a Cabinet reshuffle provided the party performs well.

* Kith and kin, and defector factor in elections:

The CM promoted ‘kith and kin’ culture by fielding his son Raghavendra as the candidate from Shimoga. So winning the seat is crucial to Yeddyurappa than for his son.

* Ananth Kumar can prove to be flesh in the thorn:

Victory to Ananth Kumar in the polls and a ministerial berth at the Centre can give a rebirth to his one-upmanship against Yeddyurappa.

For the Congress

* Reflects on party’s leadership:

The Congress is facing the first Lok Sabha polls after new president and working president were appointed to the KPCC. The party appointed Gulam Nabi Azad as in-charge of party’s affairs in the State. The results reflect how these changes have worked for the party.

* Change in party’s captainship in the Assembly:

The leader of the Opposition in the Assembly Mallikarjun Kharge is expecting an entry to Lok Sabha as MP from Gulbarga. He has already resigned for the post. Siddaramaiah may replace Kharge if the latter wins the battle. But if the UPA fails to becoming the ruling party or if Kharge loses, the party will find it tough to replace Kharge with Siddaramaiah.

* Decides political career of many:

Victory is crucial for all the three ex-CMs, fielded by the Congress. Dharam Singh and S Bangarappa who lost in the previous Assembly polls have to win for their survival in politics. Similar is the case with another ex-CM M Veerappa Moily. This is his third attempt to enter the Lok Sabha.

* Party’s strength:

The Congress, which suffered a major set back in the by-elections to eight Assembly seats, has made a desperate attempt to improve its position. The results will speak about its strength.

If it gets more number of seats than in the 2004 - polls the morale of party cadre will
boosted.

For the JD(S)

The JD(S) has to perform better and win a minimum of five seats on Saturday when Lok Sabha election results will be out, if it has to be part of a new, ‘secular’ government at the centre. While exit polls by TV news channels have predicted that the party would win a maximum of three seats, the JD(S) leaders are hopeful of winning between six and eight seats in the State. The party has field its candidates from 20 constituencies.

* Bargaining power:

Deve Gowda comes into picture in the process of formation of government at the centre provided his party wins at least five seats. He can bargain with the Congress or third front provided he has some numbers with him. If the JD(S) gets just two to three seats, neither the Congress nor the left will welcome him.

*Gowda may find it tough:

Kumaraswamy’s recent meeting with Sonia has not gone down well with the left parties. Even if the third front get sufficient strength to form the Government, the left leaders may not allow Gowda to play a key role in the government formation.

* Career may end:

If Gowda, who turns 77 on May 18, is defeated in Hassan, his career in active politics may come to an end. Kumaraswamy would take over the party affairs completely.

*Popularity indicator:

The JD(S)’ performance in the polls will be an indicator to its popularity under Kumaraswamy’s leadership. Better results for the party will boost the morale of its workers and will help it to grow in strength in coming days. HDK  may also become dearer to the Congress. Both, the JD(S) and the Congress may create problems for the BJP in the State.