'Exports likely to turn positive by December'

“A U shaped formation is being seen (and) in my opinion exports are likely to enter the positive territory by December-January,” Scindia told reporters at the sidelines of the 48th Annual Session of Cement Manufacturers’ Association here.

Scindia said exports were increasing on a monthly basis. The country’s outward shipments increased to $14.2 billion in August from $10.7 billion in April. The downslide was also arrested to 19.4 percentage points in August from 33.2 per cent in April as the demand for merchandise picked up in global markets ahead of Christmas.
For the April-August period of the current fiscal, the shipments dropped by 31 per cent to $64.12 billion. The government has announced several sops for exporters who contribute about 17 per cent to the country’s gross domestic product. These included interest subsidy of two per cent on bank finance. With the government revising exports figures upward by $ 14 billion for 2008-09, the data would show that the decline in the current fiscal was steeper than what was released by the commerce ministry so far.

Decline steeper

The Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics (DGCI&S) has revised the exports figures for the previous fiscal to $182 billion against around $168 billion released earlier.

With the change in the base, the drop in exports for the April-August period 2009-10 would be steeper than 31 per cent as shown in the data released so far.
While no official reason has been given for the revision in the export data, sources said, the difference has arisen because of the export turnover of the special economic zones which was earlier not counted in the external trade figures. Despite persisting problems in the major global markets, the Prime Minister Economic Advisory has projected the exports to reach $186 billion, pinning its hopes on recovery in the remaining months of the current fiscal.

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