M&M may constantly remind UPA that it is both 'lame' and 'duck'

Parliamentary affairs minister Kamal Nath may have asserted that the Congress-led Centre is no ‘lame-duck’ government but no one – including many in his own party — will buy the argument any longer. The DMK pull out has all but set the ball rolling on how long the United Progressive Alliance government will continue although there appears to be no danger to it at least in the immediate future.

Will that ‘immediate future’ go beyond a period of 2-3 months? The UPA now depends on the two mercurial Uttar Pradesh parties – Samajwadi Party led by the erstwhile wrestler Mulayam Singh Yadav and Bahujan Samaj Party of the unpredictable Mayawati. Will the two parties not make use/expose the vulnerability of the UPA? Will not they extract their pound of flesh from now on? Will they not pull the plug on the government if their demands are not met? These were the questions playing on the minds of scores of MPs in Parliament as well as the analysts on Wednesday as M Karunanidhi’s DMK finally called it quits from UPA.

Firstly, why the DMK did what it did? A party patriarch, who did not carry out the threat even when his daughter – Rajya Sabha MP Kanimozhi -- was arrested in the 2G telecom scam case in May, 2011, decided to do so on emotive issue of human rights abuse on Tamils in Sri Lanka brings home the importance of the development. Politically, DMK would not have got a better reason to walk out on Congress than this in the run up to the 2014 Lok Sabha elections.

Secondly, Karunanidhi, according to some party MPs, had been facing pressure from party cadres to go it alone in the LS polls and this was seconded by his son and heir-apparent Stalin. That the tie-up with Congress did not help in the 2011 Assembly elections where both parties suffered humiliating defeats may still be green in the octogenarian’s memory. Still, it has to be mentioned that both the parties did well in the last few elections — they won the 2004 and 2009 Lok Sabha elections and the 2006 Tamil Nadu Assembly election. The Congress has hardly faced the TN polls alone and had tied up with either of the two Dravidian parties (the other being the Jayalalitha-led AIADMK) but this time it may have to forge an understanding with the other smaller parties.

Tough situation

How will the new situation emerge at the Centre from here on? The UPA will find the going increasingly tough. It will certainly show in Parliament when it tries to push through the key legislative business. The Parliamentary agenda may get constricted. With uncertainty over its future, the government would be keen – in a hurry rather – to pass the legislations such as the Food Security Bill, the Land Acquisition Bill (both of which may bring it political dividends in the next elections) and the reforms-related financial agenda such as pension and insurance Bills, to name a few.

But here lies the rub. Both the SP and the BSP have always been acting pricey with UPA but from now on their voices may get shriller. The SP gave a preview of it in and outside Parliament on Tuesday and Wednesday stalling both Houses while demanding the sacking of Union minister and Congress leader Beni Prasad Verma, a former SP leader, who had called Mulayam names. That BJP has come to SP’s support in this may only add pressure on UPA. The SP too, for a change, was all praise for the BJP – its senior leader and Mulayam’s brother Ramgopal Yadav paid tributes to A B
Vajpayee calling him the best PM and NDA a better government than the UPA.

 While both SP and BSP will seek concessions, the Congress will be called upon to play the balancing act between the constantly jostling parties. In Parliament, both may demand passage of their favourite bills in which they are diametrically opposed to each other — SP’s demand for quota for Muslims and BSP’s for reservations in promotion to SCs and STs in government jobs. Still, despite all these, the UPA government collapsing in the immediate future may be far fetched. The BSP, after its drubbing in the UP Assembly polls, is in no position to face polls right now while SP, besieged with communal riots ever since Mulayam’s son Akhilesh took over reigns a year ago, may not be too eager to go for early elections. SP may also not like to carry the risk of ‘pulling down a secular government’ and giving a chance to the BJP.
DMK has become the second key ally to pull out of what many see the sinking ship in the last six months. West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress walked out in September 2012 but the exit of the southern ally has brought in a question mark on the stability of the UPA government.

The developments surrounding the Janata Dal-United may need to be watched. The opposition party was eager to certify ‘no threat to the UPA government’ immediately after the DMK quit and is deemed to be getting closer to the Congress following the in-principle accord to ‘special status’ to Bihar in the Union budget.
So, interesting days are in the offing!