Complex impact

If the Egyptian military’s ouster of President Mohammed Morsi was aimed at restoring order in Egypt it has failed miserably.

Violence has escalated since Morsi’s ouster, with clashes breaking out between the Muslim Brotherhood and the armed forces.

Whatever the flaws in Morsi’s style of governing – and there were many, including a refusal to consult the opposition - he was elected through a democratic process that was by and large free and fair. Sure he did not function democratically, having rammed through a new constitution by subverting rules. But this is no justification for a coup. It is ironic that the Egyptian military - hardly an epitome of democratic values - has sought to justify the intervention by claiming it acted to revive democracy in the country. Although the military has appointed a civilian interim President, who has in turn announced a timetable for elections, Egypt hasn’t moved closer to democracy.  
When the Muslim Brotherhood came to power in Egypt two years ago, it sent out a strong message to Islamists in the Arab and Muslim world that the ballot box could bring them to power and that the democratic option was more effective than the violence espoused by groups like al-Qaeda. Morsi’s toppling will undermine that message. It will convince Islamists that it doesn’t pay to enter the democratic mainstream. The coup will boost radicalism and violence in the region.

The US and Israel, who were uneasy with the ascendance of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, will breathe easy with their ‘reliable partners’ - the military and Mubarak-era elites - back in the saddle. That the US has refrained from calling the military intervention a coup is telling; it signals support for Morsi’s ouster. Besides, calling it a coup would require the US to halt the $1.5-billion military aid to Egypt. It is this aid that had kept the Egyptian military allied with the Americans and the Israelis and the US is reluctant to risk endangering that. Analysts are drawing attention to the impact that the ouster of Muslim Brotherhood will have on the Israel-Palestine conflict. The Muslim Brotherhood’s ejection from power will weaken Hamas and thus benefit Israel, they are saying. However, the political weakening of Hamas is not necessarily advantageous to Israel as this could strengthen Hamas’ hardliners. The impact of Morsi’s ouster is therefore extremely complex.  Those rejoicing his exit are celebrating too soon.