Votaries of hybrids make a case for reliability

When automakers rolled out their new electric cars three years ago, they had big plans. Even President Barack Obama, in his State of the Union address in 2011, predicted there would be as many as a million of them on the nation’s roads by the middle of the decade.

Results have, so far, fallen way short of expectations. Only about 36,000 battery-powered vehicles were sold this year through July, according to the auto-research site Edmunds.com. And many of those sales were spurred by heavy discounts from car companies desperate to move electric models off the lot.

But for hybrid cars, it has been a different story. Automakers have sold about 298,000 hybrids, which alternately run on gasoline engines and battery power, so far this year.
And while electric vehicles may be considered greener and more glamorous, hybrids have quietly entered the mainstream of the American auto market.

Today, more than 40 conventional hybrid models are available, from mass-market automakers like Toyota and Ford to luxury brands like BMW and Mercedes. Hybrids account for about 3 percent of overall industry sales, with the market-leading Toyota Prius cracking the Top 10 list of best-selling passenger cars.

By contrast, automakers offer only about a dozen all-electric cars or plug-in models - which run on battery power with assistance from a gasoline engine - though more are on the way.

Industry analysts say that hybrid models are now showing up on the shopping lists of a broad range of consumers.

“Conventional hybrids are mainstream now,” said John O’Dell, the green-car editor at Edmunds. “You can envision almost anyone buying one.”

The reasons are many. Hybrids cost less than most electric models. There are no limitations on driving range based on battery power. And the technology, once seen as exotic and possibly unreliable, has been proven over time in real-world driving conditions.
One of the hybrid converts is Pandian Athirajan, an IBM product manager in Austin, Texas. He had been considering buying a Prius for years before finally taking the plunge in May.
He bought the Prius to save gas and reduce vehicles emissions, but only because its hybrid system had been perfected by Toyota since it was introduced in 2000.

“I wanted to buy a third-generation hybrid so that all kinks were ironed out,” Athirajan said.

For many consumers, price is the biggest factor in choosing a hybrid over a vehicle that runs primarily on battery power, though a $7,500 federal tax credit is available for plug-in models and all-electric cars.

For example, the base price for a regular, gasoline-powered Ford Fusion sedan is $21,900. The conventional hybrid version of the car goes for $26,200. But the plug-in variation costs $38,700. Faced with sluggish demand for electric vehicles, auto companies have increasingly been forced to slash prices to stimulate demand. Ford, for example, recently cut $4,000 from the price of its all-electric Focus.

Manufacturers are also fighting an uphill battle to win over consumers worried about the distances they can travel before recharging an a purely electric car.

That was one reason Athirajan chose a hybrid. Even though his hometown has several public charging stations, including one at his local Wal-Mart, Athirajan was concerned about making the 300-mile drive to Houston twice a month to visit his daughter.

Athirajan said he was prepared to look into buying an electric vehicle in three or four years but that he thought the electric technology still needed to mature. He also said that four to six hours to charge the battery was too long.

“Most of the EV cars give anywhere between 75 to 125 miles between charge,” Athirajan said. “It will be OK for weekday office trips but not OK for weekend shopping and other trips, and definitely not suitable for my weekend trips to Houston.”

Despite the lukewarm acceptance of electric models, automakers are nevertheless pushing ahead with more of them. One critical consideration is the increasingly stringent fuel-economy rules set by the federal government, which mandate that a car company’s total fleet must average 54.5 mpg by 2025, nearly double what it is today.

The pressure is even more acute in California, which has a zero-emission-vehicle program intended to cut pollution and increase sales of electric cars. Chrysler, which is controlled by the Italian automaker Fiat, recently acknowledged that it would sell an electric version of the Fiat 500 minicar specifically to comply with California requirements.

Sergio Marchionne, the chief executive of both Fiat and Chrysler, made a rare admission that his companies were willing to lose money on the vehicle as long as it helped them adhere to fuel-economy rules.

Analysts like O’Dell said the fuel and emissions standards possibly forced automakers to introduce electric vehicles before there was actual demand for them.

“It might have been better to continue improving conventional hybrids and do more plug-in vehicles first,” he said.

Still, car companies are continuing to invest heavily in all facets of alternative-fuel vehicles. Ford is spending about $400 million to design parts for electrified models and increasing its research into higher capacity batteries.

General Motors considers the plug-in Chevrolet Volt an important product in its lineup but acknowledges that it has been a challenge to gain wide consumer acceptance. Last year, it cut production and this summer reduced the price by $4,000 in addition to offering more favorable lease terms to stimulate demand.

Nissan, which makes the all-electric Leaf, said it remained committed to the car.
“Nissan’s priority is to make Leaf the first affordable, mass-market, zero-emission vehicle,” a Nissan spokesman, Brian Brockman, said.

Tesla, which makes an all-electric car, has had solid sales catering to the highest end of the market.

Analysts say that the public’s tepid response to electric vehicles, and the embrace of hybrids, is typical of the way people adopt new technology.

“They all come onto the market very slowly and then begin to accelerate,” said Philip G. Gott, senior director at IHS Automotive. “Hybrids are beginning to accelerate.”

Leading that growth is the Prius. Toyota’s decision to expand the Prius lineup to three hybrid models, along with a plug-in model, has been a big part of the company’s comeback in the United States from recalls linked to sudden acceleration issues. In July, Prius sales jumped 40 per cent, to 23,294 - which includes only 817 plug-ins - and it was the 12th best-selling vehicle in the United States.

Toyota, which offers 11 hybrid models, including its Lexus brand, said that being first to the market helped the Prius remain the best-selling hybrid. The Prius accounts for about 70 percent of hybrids sold.

“It wasn’t an overnight success,” a Toyota spokeswoman, Jana Hartline, said. “It was considered by many to be a science experiment. I think it just took people a while to understand the benefits of hybrid technology, but now it’s pretty clear that there’s no compromise on the part of the consumer. You just get in, turn it on and drive.”

Toyota plans to offer 18 new or redesigned hybrid models by 2015 to expand its reach.
David Blum, a graphic designer from Lake Elsinore, Calif., bought a Prius last month to replace the older model he has driven since 2005. He originally purchased the Prius to take advantage of the incentives offered by California, including tax credits and a sticker that allows him to drive in the state’s car pool lanes.

“I got used to the mileage, and it was difficult to go back to a gasoline engine,” Blum said. “When you get 40 to 50 miles to the gallon, it just becomes the normal.”

He said he would not buy an electric car because the price was high and he would need to install a charging station in his garage. “There is not yet an affordable electric option with enough range to make it viable,” he said.