PV-DH exit poll gives 14-16 seats for BJP; Cong gets 11-13

The BJP may win 14 to 16 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in Karnataka, the ruling Congress 11 to 13 seats and the Janata Dal (Secular) 1 to 2 seats, according to an exit poll conducted by Prajavani-Deccan Herald.

The exit poll, with a sample size of 9,218 voter-respondents, was conducted by Prajavani-Deccan Herald staffers and stringers on April 17, in each of the 224 Assembly segments of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in the State.

The random exit poll, however, projects the BJP to poll 41.8 per cent of the close to 3.11 crore votes polled in the 28 seats. This is 0.6 percentage points less than the projected Congress vote share of 42.4 per cent votes, according to the exit poll.

The JD(S) is shown as polling 12.3 per cent of the votes. The fledgling Aam Aadmi Party, which has fielded its candidates in all the constituencies is projected to have a vote share of just 1.3 per cent.
The marginally higher vote share of the Congress is not seemingly converting into a higher seat share for the party. In relative terms also, the party’s projected vote share is nearly 6 percentage points more than its share of votes in the 2009 parliamentary elections (37.65 per cent) and also its vote share in the last May’s State Assembly elections (36.59 per cent).

On the contrary, the projected BJP vote share is marginally lower than its tally of 41.93 in the last parliamentary elections, but more than double its share of votes in the disastrous Assembly elections for the party last year, when it polled just 19.89 per cent votes.

Part of the reason why the Congress appeared to be lagging behind the BJP is that in its stronghold of Old Mysore area, it had to contend with an impressive show by the JD(S). Though the exit poll shows JD(S) faring rather poorly overall, with 12.3 per cent vote share, its share of votes in the Old Mysore area is almost 25 per cent.

The remarkable recovery shown in the exit poll by the BJP is projected to be almost entirely due to its strong showing among the youth in the age group of 18 to 35 years, who are estimated to constitute 48 to 49 per cent of the State’s electorate.

The exit poll projects the party to have won a lion’s share of 54 per cent votes in this age group against the Congress’ 30 per cent. However, the Congress has fared better than the BJP among voters above 35 years.

The poll also projects the BJP to do better than the Congress in Bangalore Urban district, Coastal Karnataka and the Mumbai-Karnataka regions.

The Congress is projected to have done better than its rivals in the Hyderabad-Karnataka and Old Mysore regions.