Govt to feel RS pinch throughout its tenure

The BJP may have swept to power in the last Lok Sabha polls, but it will have to wait well beyond 2019 to garner a majority in the Rajya Sabha where a strong Opposition has stalled its legislative agenda. 

On the back of its best ever electoral performance in Jammu and Kashmir, the BJP for the first time is set to have a Rajya Sabha member from the state.  Another addition to its kitty would be a seat in the Upper House from Maharashtra which fell vacant following the death of Congress leader Murli Deora.

The BJP’s electoral victories in Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand could translate into increased Rajya Sabha numbers only by 2018, when a sizeable number of representatives would complete their tenures.

At present, the Upper House is in the control of the Opposition who together number 132 in a House of 243. The Congress is the single largest party with 69 members. 

The Samajwadi Party has 15 members, Trinamool Congress has 12, CPM 9, NCP 6, CPI 2, National Conference 2, and the RJD, JD(S), JMM, Kerala Congress (M) and INLD one each.

The House also has 10 members who were nominated by the erstwhile UPA government. As against this, the BJP has 45 members and its allies the Shiv Sena 3, Akali Dal 3, TDP 6, and RPI-Athawale, All-India N Rangasamy Congress and Nagaland People’s Front one each. They all add up to only 60 members.

In 2015, only nine members of the Rajya Sabha are completing their tenures, including two nominated members and the BJP and its allies can win three – two in Jammu and Kashmir and one in Puducherry.  Besides, the Modi government can nominate two members of its choice.

The BJP could reap benefits in 2016 when 75 seats in the Upper House will fall vacant, followed by another major churning in 2018 when 68 members would complete their tenure.Assuming that the BJP puts on a good performance in the upcoming elections in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, the NDA would still be short of the halfway mark in the Rajya Sabha in 2019, when the Modi government completes its tenure.

At best, the BJP can seek solace in becoming the single largest party in the Upper House.